This is some good news, finally about the real estate market. My opinion is that we still have some distance to go – whether that is 6 months, 1 year or several, we are not completely out of the woods. Based on my observations, I do feel that our local market has hit a flat spot and any decline has begun to slow or stop in some cases. Regardless, here is a
U.S. existing home sales rise in sign sector healing
Interpretation for the Coatesville, PA 19320 real estate market update: Coatesville has been the hardest hit area of Chester County, but luckily, the trends are showing some positive numbers. Start with the fact that the average Days On Market down by 16% compared to a year ago. Last month saw a decrease of 17% in the average time it took to sell a home in Coatesville. In addition the number of pendings is up 25% from 2008 and the average settled price saw an increase of 3%. Coatesville isn’t out of the woods yet, but there is some light showing.
Here are some Highlights:
Here are the details:
| June 2009 | May 2009 | % Ch | June 2008 | % Ch | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg DOM | 69 | 68 | +1.5% | 82 | -16% |
| Orig. List $ | $244,419 | $230,505 | +6% | $233,610 | +4.6% |
| Sold List $ | $223,113 | $216,696 | +3.2% | $219,986 | +1.8% |
| Avg Settled $ | $212,538 | $207,479 | +2.4% | $206,793 | +3% |
| List To Sale Ratio | 95% | 95.75% | +.75% | 94% | +1% |
| # Pending | 55 | 49 | +11% | 44 | +25% |
| # Sold | 58 | 43 | +34.8% | 59 | -1% |
Interpretation for the West Chester, PA 19380 real estate market update: June saw an increase in activity over May in both the number of pending sales and actual settled homes. Homes also took 20% less time to sell and received 12% more than the month before. Compared to the same month a year ago, not much changed terribly with the exception of how long homes took to sell (50% longer) and home many actually sold (14% more).
Here are some Highlights:
Here are the details:
June 2009
May 2009
% Ch
June 2008
% Ch
Avg DOM
79
95
-20%
52
+51%
Orig. List $
$406,292
$437,284
-8%
$410,126
-1%
Sold List $
$403,399
$357,993
+12%
$393,595
+2.5%
Avg Settled $
$376,066
$332,119
+12%
$380,545
-1.1%
List To Sale Ratio
93.3%
92.7%
+.5%
96.6%
-3.3%
# Pending
100
87
+15%
101
-1%
# Sold
111
74
14.8%
97
+14%
Interpretation for the update for Downingtown, PA 19335: While activity has decreased significantly, prices have yet to see any significant hit. That is changing. 2009 is showing that prices will see a decent decline, but activity is showing some signs of improvement.
Here are some Highlights:
Here are the details:
June 2009
May 2009
% Ch
June 2008
% Ch
Avg DOM
78
95
-18%
70
+11%
Orig. List $
$422,042
$449,146
-6.1%
$535,960
-22%
Sold List $
$368,577
$361,987
+1.9%
$428,347
-16.3%
Avg Settled $
$344,444
$338,098
+1.7%
$407,176
-18.3%
List To Sale Ratio
93.4%
93.4%
–
95%
-2%
# Pending
75
80
-6.5%
66
+12%
# Sold
98
54
+81%
107
-9%
Interpretation for the Chester County, PA real estate market update: Price has not seen a significant hit in Chester County so far in this economic downturn. Unfortunately, the numbers are changing for 2009. This month signals the 2nd month of a -12% drop in the average sold price of homes in Chester County when comparing the stats to 2008. 2008 saw a 3.5% retreat in average sold price, but a 20% drop in activity. While 12% may seem like a lot, we have to keep everything in perspective that prices nationally have seen a much more significant drop than Chester County has.
Here are some Highlights:
Here are the details:
| June 2009 | May 2009 | % Ch | June 2008 | % Ch | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg DOM | 81 | 94 | -14% | 66 | +19% |
| Orig. List $ | $417,262 | $473,370 | -12% | $439,705 | -5.1% |
| Sold List $ | $380,878 | $344,553 | +9.5% | $425,002 | -10.6% |
| Avg Settled $ | $353,942 | $319,967 | +9.7% | $402,021 | -12.2% |
| List To Sale Ratio | 92.8% | 92.8% | – | 94.5% | -1.7% |
| # Pending | 465 | 428 | +8% | 448 | +3.7% |
| # Sold | 537 | 345 | +55% | 571 | -6% |
| Total Listed | 958 | 937 | +3% | 932 | +2.7% |
As a follow up to a post I put up on May 23rd, 2009 entitled “Absorption rate of real estate in Chester County”, I wanted to show what this looked like when referring to “Days On Market” and “Property Marketing Period” for real estate in Chester County. All of this information is gathered from the local Mulitple Listing System _ TRENDMls.com . “Days on Market” is defined as the number of days that a home was listed with a particular brokerage, and isn’t always the most accurate indicator of the time it takes to sell a property. The reason for that is that if they relist with another brokerage, then the DOM gets reset.
That is why the MLS has what’s called the “Property Marketing Period” which counts the entire period of time a property has been for sale, regardless of which or how many brokerages it has been with. This is a more accurate indicator of how long it is taking to sell a home.
Lastly, you have to take into account that these are averages. May sellers in today’s market are putting their home up for sale at unrealistic prices which skews the numbers. I know that the average days on market for our team is about 40 days. That is because we are pricing the properties appropriately and only work with serious sellers.
So here is the basic data below, as well as a chart.
Price (In Thousands)
DOM Last Quarter
PMP Last 30 Days
Inventory Accumulation (Months)
$0 – $200
81
92
7
$201 – $251
84
113
7
$251 – $300
98
141
9
$301 – $350
108
123
11
$351 – $400
107
149
12
$401 – $500
90
105
14
$501 – $750
83
107
16
$751+
118
147
35
How many of you know exactly what Home Mortgage rates are doing right now and where the experts think they are heading? If you are planning on refinancing, selling a home or buying a home, this is one VERY important piece of information that you should get daily updates on.
Who has time for that you may ask? Norm Miron, with our local Wells Fargo office makes it VERY easy! Simply go to his website, click on the “Interest Rate Alerts” and sign up. It’s free & simple and every day about 1pm you will get an email with what the rates are for that day.
For me, as a real estate professional in the Chester County/Downingtown Area, I find it extremely helpful and interesting. I can tell you that rates have been pretty volatile as of late. In fact a few weeks ago we saw the 30 yr conventional rate go from 4.875% to almost 6% in one day. Now that has come back down and as of late they are at about 5.5%. But, I never know what my daily alert email will bring.
When rates jumped for a week or two, I heard a lot of fear from buyers I was currently working with. I shared with them a little perspective that even 6.5% is historically low. Take a look at the graph below. Over the last 17 years, mortgage rates have averaged more around the 7% – 7.5% mark, so even 6.5% is still a point below the average. And when you look at the rates from a longer perspective, the lowest they have been in the last 50 years is about 4.85%. So if rates are historically low, where are they most likely to go in the future? That’s right UP. Take advantage while the getting is good.
I have also included a table that shows what the experts think the rates will do in the next 30 and 90 days. Most thing in the short term they will drop again, slightly. But then over 90 days, it’s a tie between drop or rise slightly. I always tell home buyer clients – when you try to “time” the market, you almost always loose.
If you are considering selling your current home and/or buying, feel free to contact me, Chris LaGarde, for a pressure free consultation. I would love to help bring clarity to your real estate decisions.
Mortgage rates over the last 17 years
Reproduced with the permission of Mortgage-X.com
| Over the next 30 days: | Over the next 90 days: |
| rates will rise significantly: 0.0% | rates will rise significantly: 0.0% |
| rates will rise slightly: 30.4% | rates will rise slightly: 34.8% |
| rates will remain unchanged: 17.4% | rates will remain unchanged: 21.7% |
 rates will decline slightly: 47.8% |
rates will decline slightly: 34.8% |
| rates will decline significantly: 4.3% | rates will decline significantly: 8.7% |
Here is a quick look at the price ranges, by increments of $50,000, and how many months of inventory exists for each one. While looking at this, please keep in mind that the rule of thumb in real estate is that when you have 6 months or less worth of inventory, you have a “Centrist” market, meaning the market is balanced. Anything less is a Sellers market, anything more is a Buyers.
When examining this chart, it becomes clear that homes that are selling for under $251,000 are actually in a slight Buyers market. Even homes under $350,000 are in more of a “Centrist” market. The reason for this is that a majority of homes under $300,000 are bought by first time home buyers. At the moment, a majority of the buyers in the market fit that category, not to mention the crazy low interest rates and the $8000 tax credit.
This is the type of information buyers need to understand that they cannot throw an offer at a seller that is more than 10% or more off the asking with out offending them and getting laughed at. Yes – there are rare circumstances where a home is listed way to high. But, when that is the case, it usually tells you that the seller is not willing to deal with reality, or their Realtor is doing them a huge disservice.
For any home over the $300,000 mark, this means if you don’t have to sell, then don’t. But if you do remember, it is a price war and a beauty contest. Meaning your home has to show extremely well, and your price needs to be aggressive, and a good Realtor will help you know exactly what that is.
What do you think?
I recently answered the question “What is the average amount of time that a house is on the market in Chester County?” I wanted to share the answer with you all as it is a key metric in how the real estate market is doing in Chester County
“After selling more than 66 homes with my team in the last 12 months, and being a constant student of the market, I think a week is too short a time to expect a home to sell in this market, though not impossible.
My team feels that if it is priced right, and condition is in tip top shape, you should see enough serious interest and at least one offer within two to three weeks. One week is not quite enough to determine if the price is not right on. At that point, a price correction needs to happen according to the pricing strategy you set with your Realtor.
I can tell you the averages for Chester County in April – but keep in mind these are averages and each home is different:
But the REAL interesting thing is that when the average home first comes on the market, it is WAY overpriced. In fact, the average original list price is $457,657. That is more than $100,000 more than the average sale price!! So that leads one to believe that there are many misguided sellers and mostly likely, misguided and not well educated Realtors advising those sellers.
The current amount of inventory in Chester County is 11 months.
The good news is that sales as of late have been quick, pending sales have and are rising, and the list to sales price has improved across all areas. So many of sellers are doing things right showing that you can sell in this market but PRICE & CONDITION ARE KING! First time home buyers are driving this market and it shows when you break down the number of sales in $50,000 increments. Under $300,000 is almost a Sellers Market, anything over that mark is very much a Buyers market.
Ok, now that I have flooded you with info. . . Feel free to contact me if you are seriously considering selling in this market. Our team has sold a lot of homes in the last 12 months and has a fantastic track record of extremely satisfied clients. ”
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