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Chester County Real Estate Statistics: July 2011 Comments Off

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Don’t buy the fear!

We talk to many people on a weekly basis about the real estate market. The cold hard truth about the market is that it is following the overall economy which is not great. There is still much fear and anxiety out there, especially when you mix in the credit rating drop and other factors… It’s just not fun. We want to encourage you to not buy into the fear but rather, look at the facts and be educated. Education will push out the fear and that is a much more healthy place to be.  There is a lot of opportunity right now, for those who can see it.  Let’s look at the numbers more closely. . .

CLOSED SALES (DEMAND):

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Closed sales are off 28% from the 5 year average and 7% from last year. That is significant, as last years closed sales in July were dramatically down, and this month is another 7% off. However, it is a seasonally expected decrease and we hope that next month follows the season and increases slightly.

PENDING SALES :

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As with closed sales, pending sales are off the 5 year trend by 25%, which was expected, and fairly close to last years July numbers. You will know that things are improving when the pendings and closed sales rise above last years, closer the the 5 year trend.

ACTIVE LISTINGS (SUPPLY):

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Some good news is that the number of active listings is seeing a slight decline. We have been expecting the supply to be firmly increasing until about October. Less supply will help relieve some downward pressure on prices. The question we are asking is – why is there less inventory? Is it because everyone is so down on the market and don’t want to even try? It certainly isn’t because many homes were bought up, we can see that in the sold activity.

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE:

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The average sold price continues to follow the 5 year trend.

LIST TO SALE PRICE RATIO:

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Another area of good news is that the list to sale price ratio is is trending upwards. This is good news because it means that, overall, seller’s are getting more money for their homes. In addition, the ratio did not drop like it did last year in July. This could mean that prices may be stabilizing, however, due to the decrease in overall activity, this is a small step in the overall market towards stabilization. But, we will take it!

What does this mean?

It’s an amazing time to buy a home, a possibly a bad  time to sell one if you bought it in the last 5 years. It’s also an amazing time to invest in real estate. The deals we are seeing out there are just amazing.

IF YOU ARE SELLING OR THINKING OF SELLING:

Yes – it is still a difficult time to sell a home. However, our team continues to have great success getting homes sold. At the end of July, we’ve sold around 25 homes. In the end, you must have an exceptional agent by your side to help you get the information and perspective you need to make this critical decision. We’ve helped many clients do just that over the last year and a half. Call us today to let us know you need help.

IF YOU ARE BUYING A HOME OR THINKING ABOUT IT:

There continues to be amazing opportunities there for those who have all their “ducks in a row”. If you do not have a home to sell, that means knowing the process, having your financial options figured out and knowing, clearly, what you are looking for. If you have a home to sell, that adds that you have met with Caleb to know what the SELL side looks like and then meeting with Chris to clearly nail down the buy side. Interest rates have been sneaking up lately, going from 4.25% to 4.5%, even as high as 4.625% last week. So if you are thinking about buying, call us today to get that ball rolling.

NEXT STEPS:

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

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Posted on: 08-8-2011
Posted in: Chester County, Market Update, Monthly Update

Chester County Real Estate Statistics: May 2011 Comments Off

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Double Dipping?

May was a busy, busy month for the Chris & Caleb Team. When speaking with other real estate agents, there was the same general sentiment, which was good news to hear after the strangely slow April we had. However, the burst of activity does not indicate improving numbers necessarily, especially when there is a lot of downward pressure on prices and rising interest rates on the horizon. Let’s look at the details.

PENDINGS:

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Pending home sales in Chester County did increase over April, though not as much as we usually see. In fact, by this time of the year, there have been 2074 homes that have gone pending. This year, only 1378 homes have. That’s a 34% difference. It would suffice to say that home sale activity is slow.

CLOSED SALES (DEMAND):

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April was an anomaly for closed sales. Caleb and I have talked about what caused this and we can’t pinpoint it. With that said, closed sales were up in May. Our team sold about 15 homes last month, our best month ever. However, 2011 is still off for Cheser County closed sales by 13% or about 200 less homes sold than average.

ACTIVE LISTINGS (SUPPLY):

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The number of homes for sale in Chester County continue to climb. To date, there are 5% more homes for sale than last year, and we expect to see that gap continue. One reason for the increase in inventory is Foreclosures and Short Sales, aka “distressed properties”. Last year, they only comprised about 10% of the local market. This year its closer to 20%, maybe even 25%. Couple that with lower demand and it makes for a difficult market.

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE:

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The average sold price just tells us in what price range homes are selling. We’ve noticed that the $350k – $600k is a hot range these days. If you have a home in that price range and are thinking of selling, call us. We can help you know if it is the right time to sell.

LIST TO SALE PRICE RATIO:

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The List-to-sale-price-ratio let’s us know how much of asking price, homes are selling for. In May, on average, Homes sold for an average of 90.2% of asking. That means that if you were asking $200k for your home, you could expect to get about $180,000.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

The market is tough, we aren’t gonna lie. This applies to both sellers and buyers. There are many factors to take into account when entering the market and you need the best, most experienced agent next to you to help. On the other side, there are some amazing opportunities for those who want to take them and are looking actively for them. Let’s break the pro’s and con’s down for both the buyer and seller.

SELLERS:
PRO’S – It may be difficult to find a lot of pros in this market. However, what we are seeing is that if you are priced right and show really well, you will sell quickly. There is a lot of inventory on the market that is less than stellar and doing some of the small things to present your house well, goes a long way. Another pro is that if you are trying to “Move up”, meaning buy a bigger/more expensive house, you can really get a great deal on the buy side and more than make up for any difficulty on the sell side. Of course, you have to have a good real estate agent to help you understand the market.
CON’S – The market is difficult as a seller. Buyers want great deals and many seller clients that we speak with don’t have much equity to play with, which is stressful. There is lots of competition and many factors to be aware of. Again, this is why you need to speak with us regarding the sale of your Chester County home. We have the knowledge and experience to help you navigate this market as successfully as possible.

BUYERS:
PRO’s – There are so many amazing Buy opportunities on the market right now. Couple that with very low interest rates and you have an opportunity as a buyer to make a killing. Last year, the tax credit artificially inflated prices and now we are seeing prices come down to much more reasonable levels. Many people can actually afford homes now, where, previously, it was out of reach for them. Now is the time to get off the fence, as the pro’s for Buyers, far out weigh the cons.
CON’S – There are many seller’s who are in tough positions and knowing how to deal with them effectively is key. In addition, many properties are in bad shape and you are going to have to have a great agent who knows the inventory to help you avoid ones that are not in your comfort zone as far as condition goes.

NEXT STEPS:

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

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Posted on: 06-2-2011
Posted in: Chester County, Market Update, Monthly Update

Chester County Real Estate Statistics: April 2011 Comments Off

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Never a dull moment…

Last month it seemed as if someone had switched on the spring markets. Sticking with that analogy, April seems like someone hit the dimmer at about 50%. This is great news for those looking to buy, but not so much for sellers. Let’s look at what happened…

PENDINGS:

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Pendings were flat in April.  Traditionally, this month should see the biggest increase, however, due to uncertainty and lack of positive news, activity remains low. This number was a bit of a surprise to us. This is an indicator of a slower rate of sales than anticipated.

CLOSED SALES (DEMAND):

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The number of closed sales actually DECLINED in April. This is highly unusual and another indicator of a slowing market  Another negative sign for values, but a great opportunity for buyers.

ACTIVE LISTINGS (SUPPLY):

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The number of homes, actively for sale in Chester County, continues to climb. In April, that number was up more than 3% from the same month, the year before. We predict that we may see record  inventory in the fall. Possibly around 4300 homes for sale.

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE:

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The average sold price in April declined roughly 2% from March. When looking at the chart, it looks behind by about a month, mirroring last year. As always, this number is NOT an indication of what the average home is worth, but rather more where the most action is.

LIST TO SALE PRICE RATIO:

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This is a bright spot in the numbers, for last month. This number rose 2% points to 91.3% in April 2011. This means, on average, sellers received 2% more for their homes last month than in March. This is a number that needs to be in the mid 90′s before we can that prices are stabilizing.

What Does This Mean?

We continue to see amazing deals on homes – deals that we wouldn’t have seen even 6 months ago. With the interest rates recently declining, this makes a great time to either buy your first home, sell your current home and buy something bigger or invest in real estate.

SELLERS: If you are thinking of selling your home, you MUST make sure you are serious and that you pick the best agent you can find. “Best” means the they know this current market inside out and that they have as much experience as possible. Simply ask – how many homes have you sold in the last year? You’ve cannot take a chance with just any agent off the street because it will cost you too much! The big question is – can you afford to sell in the first place. This is a question we are helping a lot of clients understand clearly.  We are the experts – no one knows the market better than us. We sell 7x’s more homes than the average agent, in les than half the time and for almost 4% more. If you want the best, please call us at 484-696-4833

BUYERS: GET OFF THE FENCE!! If you are qualified and want to purchase a home, now is the best time in a very long time to do so. As this is written, interest rates have even dipped a bit and there is only one direction they are heading – up!  There are amazing deals out there and you have to have the BEST agent by your side to see them and then to negotiate them. As with Sellers, they better be the most experience agent you can find in the market of the moment, not the market of 20 years ago, or even a year ago. Set an appointment with Chris to get your plan clarified for buying and take massive action. We fully believe these market conditions won’t be seen for a very long time, if ever for buyers. Again, you can reach us at 484-696-4833.

NEXT STEPS

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

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Posted on: 05-4-2011
Posted in: Chester County, Market Update, Monthly Update, News

Chester County Real Estate Statistics: March 2011 Comments Off

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START YOUR ENGINES!!

Holy cow, what a difference a month makes!! About two and a half weeks ago, it was like someone flipped a switch and started the spring markets. The Chris & Caleb team have been selling homes like crazy and we have been inundated with calls about the listings we have. Good news right? Definitely, but let’s see how much good news it is. . .

PENDINGS:

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March saw a 40% increase in the number of pending sales over February, which is a welcome increase. Unfortunately, it wasn’t quite enough as the number – 291 vs. 430 – was still 33% offer the same month, the year before. Now keep in mind, that last year the tax credit was in full effect, so activity was artificially inflated. So the gap is not quite as distressing as it seems. Still, the bottom line is activity down.

CLOSED SALES (DEMAND):

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Again, numbers for March are up from last month, about 36% more, but down from the same month last year, off about 8% total. When you look at the 5 year trend, the activity is also off about 8%. So far for 2011, our predictions are right, in that activity will be 10%  or more off of what it has been.

ACTIVE LISTINS (SUPPLY):

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This figure is up 8% from last month and 3% from same time last year. In the fall of 2010 the inventory was very high, previous to the holiday slow down. Around Thanksgiving, the inventory started dropping, but most of those home owners still needed to sell, they just didn’t want to do it over the holidays. Now many of them are coming back on the market, which is why inventory is going to reach close, if not more than, the 4000 mark we saw last fall.

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE:

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The average sold price was unexpectedly high in March, at about $343,000. For some reason, which we are still trying to figure out, the price range of about $300k – $600k was very hot. We have had 4 listings in the $400k – $550, price range that sold very quick and for very close to asking price. Remember, the average sale price indicates at which price the majority of homes are selling for. When it is closer to $300k, then the “first time home buyer” homes are selling, those in the $200k range. When it is around $375k then it is the higher ranges that are selling.

LIST TO SALE PRICE RATIO:

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This figure tells us how much a home owner can expect to get for their home as a percentage. For instance – If they are asking $300,000 for their home and the average ratio is 89% (which it is for March) then they can expect to get about $267,000 for their home. That is not a fun figure. Over the last 5 years, it has been closer to 94% – 95%. We believe this is due to two factors – one, short sales and foreclosures accepting lower than average price versus asking. Two – seller’s need to get out and are fed up with waiting, so they sell at a lower price.  Luckily, our stats are much better than that. . .

What does this mean?

We have seen so many, truly unbelievable deals in the last several months, which makes this an amazing time to buy. We believe this is it, this is probably as close to the bottom as we are going to get. Seller’s are willing to deal, there are plenty of opportunities with distressed properties, interest rates are still under 5%.  If you are on the fence, now is the time to get off.

SELLERS: As usual, this is not good news, especially if you bought your home in the last 6 – 8 years. On the flip side, if you are looking to sell and buy, then you have the opportunity to make up the loss on the buy side. The big question is – can you afford to sell in the first place. This is a question we are helping a lot of clients understand clearly.  We are the experts – no one knows the market better than us. We sell 7x’s more homes than the average agent, in les than half the time and for almost 4% more. If you want the best, please call us at 484-696-4833

BUYERS: Now is the time for action! Nothing more needs to be said. Set an appointment with Chris to get your plan clarified for buying and take massive action. We fully believe these market conditions won’t be seen for a very long time, if ever for buyers. Again, you can reach us at 484-696-4833.

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

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Posted on: 04-4-2011
Posted in: Chester County, Market Update, Monthly Update, News

This Month in Real Estate – March 2011 Comments Off

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Posted on: 03-3-2011
Posted in: This month in real estate, Videos

Chester Count Real Estate Statistics: January 2011 Comments Off

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Chester County Real Estate market is off to an average start…  Kinda….

The first month of the 2011 is over and the numbers are in. Most indicators are coming in at “average”… Most indicators. Unfortunately, Pendings and the “List-to-Sale-Price” ratios are not average but down. Is that something that you, as a resident of Chester County, should concern yourself with? Let’s talk. . .

PENDINGS:

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This is the “trouble area” for this month. Pendings in January were off by about 27% from both last years numbers and the 5 year trend. This is not a surprise, as trends were pointing to this. 2011 should be very similar to 2010, with the exception of the tax credit craziness that was experienced. One question we have is that we know there are a lot of people out there who are just waiting to see what happens, who want to make a move. So depending on what happens, we may see a good measure of activity. To be honest, it is the best time in 50 years to buy a home based on the affordability index and interest rates. It is very doubtful that we will see the possible deals we are seeing now anytime in the near future.

CLOSED SALES:

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Closed sale activity was very much in line with both the 5 year trend and last years numbers. According to the pending numbers it should have been a little lower. This could be a good sign, an indicator of the pent up demand that has been sitting on the sidelines waiting. We will have to see what the next several months show.

ACTIVE LISTINGS (SUPPLY):

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Again, this number is inline with last year and the 5 year trend.

LIST TO SALE PRICE RATIO:

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Last month, the list to sale price ratio, or the amount of money a seller could expect to get compared to asking price, was a very low 89.5%. That means that buyers are getting great deals and seller’s were giving up more than average.  So if a home was for sale at $400,000, then, on average, the seller would get about $358,000 for their home. That’s a pretty big difference, especially when the 5 year trend for January is just over 92%. This is an indicator that prices are still dropping.

What does this mean?

OVERALL: Different month, same song- Demand continues to be down, supply is up, prices continue to come down. Now is still an incredible time to buy a home, since interest rates are still at a historical low (around 5%), there’s no frenzy with a tax credit (which means you won’t overpay for a home) and seller’s are willing to deal.

SELLERS: If you must sell, need to sell or have a great need to sell then please listen very closely.  Your home is worth more right now, than it will be next week, next month or even next year. The trends are showing that the market has not hit bottom yet and will not for a few years. So if you can stay put in your home for another couple of years and weather the storm, then we recommend you do so. If you must sell, you MUST price it right. If you price it too high, you will chase the market down and stand to lose a lot of money. Please call us to talk to the experts in Chester County real estate. We’ve sold 7x’s more homes than the average agent and we did it in almost half the time and got our clients almost 4% more than the average agent. If you want the best, call us at 484-696-4833.

BUYERS: There are incredible opportunities out there for every buyer. But, just as sellers do, you need an incredible agent too. One that knows the market. There are plenty of issues out there that can really get you into trouble and if your agent has not sold many homes in the last 12 months, then you are putting yourself at risk. Please call us and let us interview for the job of representing you in the purchase of your next home. 484-696-4833.

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

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Posted on: 02-8-2011
Posted in: Chester County, Market Update, Monthly Update

Chester County Real Estate Statistics: November 2010 Comments Off

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The Chris & Caleb Assessment: No “bad news” is good…  Right?

The numbers for November are in!! And there is no real “bad news” but, there is no “good news” either. The numbers are just as we thought they would be, which is still “depressed”. On average, the closed activity is off the 5 year trend by 25%. And when compared to this time last year, it’s actually off by 43%!  Let’s look closer at the numbers

PENDINGS:

The “good news” is that the gap between the 5 year trend and last months numbers did get a bit closer. November was off by only 17%. Last month was off by 37%. So that seem’s like an improvement. December is likely to follow the trend and slow further, with probably between 200 – 225 pendings in December. Possibly slightly less. It is not surprising that the numbers have closed the gap, as demand is so low, relatively speaking. The gap will most likely narrow during December and January and then widen again after that.

CLOSED SALES (DEMAND):

Overall, closed sales are still low. Off by 25% from the 5 year trend. As mentioned above, actually off a whopping 43% from this time last year. That of course is because of the inflated and bloated numbers that the tax credit caused.  Demand will drop further over the next two months as everyone celebrates the holiday. We predict the numbers will continue to remain off by 15%-25% from the 5 year trend in 2011. All the indicators are pointing to this.

ACTIVE LISTINGS (SUPPY)

Last month saw a dramatic decrease in the number of homes on the market. Unfortunately, this was not because many of them sold. In fact, they were all pulled off the market or the listing contract expired. Seasonally, many people pull their homes off the market to celebrate the holidays. Only those that have a serious need to sell, keep their homes on the market. Last month, the supply decreased by 9%. Typically we see a 6% decrease. What this means is that we will very likely see a Tsunami of inventory come back on the market between February and April. Once that happens, prices will have a lot of downward pressure and we will most likely see further decreases in home values.

LIST TO SALE PRICE RATIO

This number is important this month. In November, the average list to sale price ratio was 89%. That means that if someone is asking $200,000 for their home, on average, they got $178,000 for it. This is the lowest it has been in quite some time and it also means there is tremendous pressure on prices to come down further. This is a very clear indication of a shift in the market. As you can see, there is usually a decrease in this number at this time of year, but not as dramatic as this. This ratio is a leading indicator of where prices are headed.

What does this mean?

Overall: I’ve been saying this for the last 9 months – Prices are going down. We have not hit bottom. The overall economy and the consumers confidence must come up and the unemployment numbers must go down along with the inventory of distressed properties, which currently is about 10%-12% of the market, or about 400 out of 4000 homes. When that happens, you will see the amount of inventory come down, demand go up and the list to sale price ratio come up as well. We believe this is going to take, at best, two more years to accomplish.

SELLERS: So realistically, your home is probably worth more right now, than it will be until 2013, maybe longer. If you have to sell, now is not the time to have a ho-hum agent by your side. You are getting into shark infested waters. You need an expert in the current market to help you navigate to get the best price for your home in the right time frame. If you don’t need to sell, now is NOT the time to test the market. Get serious or get out. We sell 7x’s more homes than the average agent. We get almost 4% more for our clients homes than other agents would. You want us by your side, so contact us – 484-696-4833.

BUYERS: Just as it is with sellers, you need an incredible agent too.One that knows the market. There are plenty of issues out there that can really get you into trouble and if your agent has not sold many homes in the last 12 months, then you are putting yourself at risk. Please call us and let us interview for the job of representing you in the purchase of your next home. 484-696-4833.

Next Steps:

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

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Posted on: 12-7-2010
Posted in: Chester County, Market Update, Monthly Update

Chester County Real Estate Statistics: October 2010 Comments Off

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The Chris & Caleb Team Assessment: If it isn’t painful….

It’s said that we don’t grow or make a change until something is painful. Well folks, I hope you are making a change because the way things have been the last 10 years has created the pain we are experiencing now. It certainly seems that we are all looking for change – first in electing the current president and now in the wave of change from this recent election. The real estate market in Chester County is going to through another painful shift which is obvious when you look at Supply, Demand and Intended Demand. Let’s look closer. . .

PENDINGS:

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Last month, we said that we didn’t think we would see much of a rise in pendings. For the most part, we were right, the number of pendings is up slightly. This tick upward does follow the 5 year trend. And while the Chris & Caleb team has seen an increase in general activity in the market, the number of pendings are still off by a whooping 37% from their 5 year trend. If you compare the numbers to this time last year the gap is even wider, yet that was during the end of the first tax credit, which inflates the numbers. Due to the increase in general market activity, it would not surprise us if pendings continued to be a bit higher than usual. The market needs it. But we do believe the holiday slump will inevitably happen and we expect it to be quite quiet between Thanksgiving and New Year.

CLOSED SALES (DEMAND):

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Another area where we are seeing this market correction is in the number of closed sales, which were off by 28% from the 5 year trend. Basically, this number lags behind the pending number by about 45-60 days. While this correction is painful, we 100% believe it is healthy and needed. Next month may see a slight upward bump, due to slight increase in pendings in October, but not too much. Overall, we believe title and closing companies are going to be busier than expected in November and December.

ACTIVE LISTINGS (SUPPLY)

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This number is still quite elevated – up almost 10% from the 5 year trend. An interesting correlation is that the amount of homes on the market that are distressed homes in Chester County (Foreclosures, short sales) is about 10-12%, depending on the day. Granted, there are almost always some measure of distressed properties for sale, but they typically are less than 1%. In order for the market to get healthier and more balanced, one thing that must happen is that the number of distressed properties for sale must dry up. That’s gonna be hard to do – it will take a few years. The thing that sucks even more is that distressed properties drive prices down. They won’t go away until prices stabilize… so you can see it’s quite a rock and a hard place we’ve put ourselves in. . . Luckily, Chester County has been and will be very insulated from negative market forces (our unemployment is around the 7% mark, compared to almost 10% nationally).

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE:

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This number is one that is closer to the 5 year trend. Really all this number indicates is what price range has been selling. We expect this number to ride slightly higher than the trend, mostly because many of the first time home buyers that bought in the spring, driving the average sale price pretty low, already bought. So the buyers in the market right now are more higher end buyers. In addition, many home owners who were first time buyers 5 or so years ago have probably seen the values of their homes go well below what they bought them for originally and can’t sell, even if they wanted to.

LIST TO SALE PRICE RATIO:

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We don’t usually show you this graph, but felt it needed to be discussed quickly. This number is one that shows us if prices are going down, up or stabilizing. Right now, and over the last two years, the prices have been declining. What is very clear when looking at this chart is that after about May or June, there was a significant correction, which appears to still be ironing itself out.  We will know that the market has gotten through a majority of it’s “pain” when this ratio is closer to the 5 year trend in the upper 90′s. Right now, everything is telling us that prices continue to have a lot of pressure pushing them lower.

What Does This Mean??

Overall: Prices continue to come down. Painfully, we have not hit bottom. The overall economy and the consumers confidence in that must come up and the unemployment numbers must go down along with the inventory of distressed properties. When that happens, you will see the amount of inventory come down, demand go up and the list to sale price ratio come up as well. Painful – we know, but it’s reality.

For Sellers: If you have or are going to have your home on the market, now is not the time to have a ho-hum agent by your side. You are getting into shark infested waters. You need an expert in the current market to help you navigate to get the best price for your home in the right time frame. If you don’t need to sell, now is NOT the time to test the market. Get serious or get out. We sell 7x’s more homes than the average agent. We get almost 4% more for our clients homes than other agents would. You want us by your side, so contact us – 484-696-4833.

For Buyers: Just as it is with sellers, you need an incredible agent as well. One that knows the market. There are plenty of issues out there that can really get you into trouble and if your agent has not sold many homes in the last 12 months, then you are putting yourself at risk. Please call us and let us interview for the job of representing you in the purchase of your next home. 484-696-4833.

Next Steps:

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

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Posted on: 11-3-2010
Posted in: Chester County, Market Update, Monthly Update

Chester County Real Estate Statistics: September 2010 Comments Off

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The Chris & Caleb Team Assessment: More of the same…

Yup, more of the same. Supply of homes for sale continues to climb, pending sales and closed sales continue to drop. The only thing going up is the average sales price and that doesn’t say what most might think it does. Let’s take a closer look.

PENDINGS:

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While it is expected that Pending sales typically drop slightly in Chester County in September, it is not what we wanted to see this year. Pending sales are off by about 38% from the 5 year trend. That trend is showing that we might expect an increase next month, but we predict that they will remain flat at best. The general consensus among real estate agents in this area is that they are not getting many showings on their listings and buyers are difficult to find. To us, that says that an increase in pendings in October is unlikely.

CLOSED SALES (DEMAND):

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While the gap between closed sales this year and the 5 year trend closed slightly in September, they were still off the mark by 21%. July was off by a whopping 37%. Seasonally we expect sales to drop from August to September, but with the market being off already, it’s not a positive sign that activity is still low. The trend for the next 3 is for the numbers to remain level and then drop for December and January. We predict that closed sales will drop a little more over the next several months and that December and January will be very slow. This is based mostly on the pending numbers and what we feel the general consensus is among the buyers and sellers that we talk to.

ACTIVE LISTINGS (SUPPLY):

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This is one number that we actually want to drop, yet it isn’t. The statistics tracking that we have access to only goes back about 10 years and in the last 10 years, we have never seen inventory levels this high in Chester County. In September, the inventory was up 11% over the 5 year trend. This is even more than last month. When demand is down and supply is up, prices MUST come down. This is a double edged sword. While it means that home prices will be even further on sale, it will probably increase the amount of distressed sales, which are already 11% of the market. Supply will come down over the next 3-5 months, but not because homes are actually selling. For those in tough positions already, this will not be good news.

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE:

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Surprisingly, despite the slow down in activity, the average sale price is up, by 5% over the 5 year trend. This is purely an indicator that homes at the higher end of the spectrum are selling. This is most likely due to incredible interest rates. Not to mention, the fact that higher end homes have taken more of a price hit than the lower ranges ($400,000 and above). The market has obviously shifted from the first time home buyer to the move up and luxury buyer, which is what we predicted would happen back in April and May.

What Does This Mean??

Overall: Last month we said what we felt was the cause for this prolonged recession in real estate, which is mainly the overall economy, unemployment and the distressed property inventory, simply put. With inventory continuing to go up and demand slowing down, it simply means that prices are going to have to come down, even further than they already have. If rates stay low through next year, which appears to be necessary, then this coming Spring could be a really great time to buy, if you can afford to do so. Of course that all depends on the overall economy.

For Sellers: It’s time to tighten the belt. If you are considering selling, then talk to the BEST, most honest agent you can find… Us, of course. You need to get a highly accurate assessment of what’s going on and if you can afford to do what you need to do. If you are currently trying to sell your house, then you will most likely need to readjust your numbers if you want to sell your home before next March. And a small price adjustment, most likely, will not do it. It’s a very precarious time to be selling a home and you must have an agent or agents on your side that study this market and know it well or you could put yourself in a very difficult spot.

For Buyers: It is just as important that you hire the best agent that you can find as it is for those selling. The best agent is going to help you understand the entire picture of what you are trying to do and help you interpret the market and how best to take advantage of the opportunities available to you. It’s not the type of market or time to buy something that you are only going to own for a year or two. We are telling our clients that you will need to be in the home at least 5  years in order to see some amount of appreciation. And if you are only putting 3.5% down, then you will most likely need to be there longer if you want to sell the home in the future for any amount of profit. Contact us today to talk to some of the very best agents in the Chester County area.

Next Steps:

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

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Posted on: 10-5-2010
Posted in: Chester County, Market Update, Monthly Update, News

Chester County Real Estate Statistics: August 2010 Comments Off

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The Chris & Caleb Team Assessment: “Rollercoaster!! Oooh, ooh, ooh!”

In July we saw the closed sales catch up with the sorrowful stats for pending sales. It is very safe to say that we are going through a “Cleansing” of sorts. So while the supply is not dropping, the number of ready, willing and able buyers certainly were “flushed out” by the tax credit. Let’s take a closer look…

PENDINGS:

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Pendings indicate future closed sales and as such, we can expect the number of future closed sales to take, yet another, hit in the next coming months as a result of August’s pending numbers. While it looks bad, you must keep in mind that pending sales traditionally take a dip in August. It is the height of vacation season and everyone is getting ready for school, so buying a home is not the first thing on everyone’s mind. Next month, if we follow trends, we will see the pending number inch back up.  Conclusion – looks like the market is still in a stall.


CLOSED SALES (DEMAND):

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The closed sales (AKA Demand) is mirroring, very closely, the line for Pending Sales. If this continues, we can very safely say that closed sales, beyond October will be very dismal, as the current trend for this year is off by more than 30%. If you are thinking of selling your home, do it now, before the end of October.


ACTIVE LISTINGS (SUPPLY):

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It looks like the Supply of homes for sale in Chester county is at about the same level as last month. As you can see, this follows the 5 year trend, which is indicated by the Red line. We believe, based on 30% less sales, that inventory will certainly stay at unusually elevated ranges through the remainder of the year, into next year.


AVERAGE SOLD PRICE:

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Due to VERY, VERY low mortgage rates, higher priced homes are now selling. Earlier in the year, many of the homes sold were most likely sold to “First time home buyers”, (Tax credit). Now it appears that those looking at higher priced homes ($350k +) are jumping on their chance to purchase a home at a great price and get the low interest rates. That is really what this chart indicates.

What Does This Mean??

OVERALL: The big problem in the market right now is two fold – First, confidence of the consumer and unemployment. Many people are very unsure about their employment and income situation or are out of a job all together. That doesn’t usually get people excited to buy a home when they are worried about whether they will get their next paycheck or not. Second is what is the distressed property inventory. When someone buys a home that is a foreclosure or short sale, there is no resulting sale from a home owner moving. That is a big issue, as that helps the chain to continue. That will be a major factor moving forward for the next three, maybe even five years, as foreclosures and short sales are not decreasing in their supply.

For Sellers: More of the same – If you don’t have to sell, you probably shouldn’t, UNLESS you are thinking of buying a bigger home and have lived in your current home for three years or more. In that case, there may be a very good chance that you could come out on the positive side for making that move. If you are thinking of doing that, please let us know and we can help you determine if it is worth it. If you must sell, choose your agent wisely. No matter your situation, there are only a few (really one team, us. . . ) agents out there that are doing a lot of business and that know this market well. Of course we want the chance to show you why more than 35 clients choose us since March of this year and why you should choose us. But it could mean the difference of attaining your dream or making a drastic mistake.

For Buyers: Interest rates continue to stay historically low. They can’t stay here forever. If inflation starts to happen, then rates will rise. So if you are ready, willing and able, there has never been a better time to purchase in the last 50+ years!! You have more choice than ever, prices are fantastic and you will save a TON of money with the interest rates. Call us to get your road map and get started!

Next Steps:

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!



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Posted on: 09-1-2010
Posted in: Chester County, Market Update, Monthly Update
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