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The Chris & Caleb Assessment: No “bad news” is good…  Right?

The numbers for November are in!! And there is no real “bad news” but, there is no “good news” either. The numbers are just as we thought they would be, which is still “depressed”. On average, the closed activity is off the 5 year trend by 25%. And when compared to this time last year, it’s actually off by 43%!  Let’s look closer at the numbers

PENDINGS:

The “good news” is that the gap between the 5 year trend and last months numbers did get a bit closer. November was off by only 17%. Last month was off by 37%. So that seem’s like an improvement. December is likely to follow the trend and slow further, with probably between 200 – 225 pendings in December. Possibly slightly less. It is not surprising that the numbers have closed the gap, as demand is so low, relatively speaking. The gap will most likely narrow during December and January and then widen again after that.

CLOSED SALES (DEMAND):

Overall, closed sales are still low. Off by 25% from the 5 year trend. As mentioned above, actually off a whopping 43% from this time last year. That of course is because of the inflated and bloated numbers that the tax credit caused.  Demand will drop further over the next two months as everyone celebrates the holiday. We predict the numbers will continue to remain off by 15%-25% from the 5 year trend in 2011. All the indicators are pointing to this.

ACTIVE LISTINGS (SUPPY)

Last month saw a dramatic decrease in the number of homes on the market. Unfortunately, this was not because many of them sold. In fact, they were all pulled off the market or the listing contract expired. Seasonally, many people pull their homes off the market to celebrate the holidays. Only those that have a serious need to sell, keep their homes on the market. Last month, the supply decreased by 9%. Typically we see a 6% decrease. What this means is that we will very likely see a Tsunami of inventory come back on the market between February and April. Once that happens, prices will have a lot of downward pressure and we will most likely see further decreases in home values.

LIST TO SALE PRICE RATIO

This number is important this month. In November, the average list to sale price ratio was 89%. That means that if someone is asking $200,000 for their home, on average, they got $178,000 for it. This is the lowest it has been in quite some time and it also means there is tremendous pressure on prices to come down further. This is a very clear indication of a shift in the market. As you can see, there is usually a decrease in this number at this time of year, but not as dramatic as this. This ratio is a leading indicator of where prices are headed.

What does this mean?

Overall: I’ve been saying this for the last 9 months – Prices are going down. We have not hit bottom. The overall economy and the consumers confidence must come up and the unemployment numbers must go down along with the inventory of distressed properties, which currently is about 10%-12% of the market, or about 400 out of 4000 homes. When that happens, you will see the amount of inventory come down, demand go up and the list to sale price ratio come up as well. We believe this is going to take, at best, two more years to accomplish.

SELLERS: So realistically, your home is probably worth more right now, than it will be until 2013, maybe longer. If you have to sell, now is not the time to have a ho-hum agent by your side. You are getting into shark infested waters. You need an expert in the current market to help you navigate to get the best price for your home in the right time frame. If you don’t need to sell, now is NOT the time to test the market. Get serious or get out. We sell 7x’s more homes than the average agent. We get almost 4% more for our clients homes than other agents would. You want us by your side, so contact us – 484-696-4833.

BUYERS: Just as it is with sellers, you need an incredible agent too.One that knows the market. There are plenty of issues out there that can really get you into trouble and if your agent has not sold many homes in the last 12 months, then you are putting yourself at risk. Please call us and let us interview for the job of representing you in the purchase of your next home. 484-696-4833.

Next Steps:

• What Is My Home Worth? Want to get a good idea of what your home is worth? Complete my Home Value Survey and find out what your Chester County Home is worth. . .
• What Is That Home Selling For? “Stop the car, honey … look at that house. I wonder what it’s selling for” Does this ever happen to you? Ever wonder what that house is selling for? Search and view all homes for sale in the Chester County area
• What do I need to know before I sell? Typically when a home does not sell, there is one reason…and it isn’t price. Please contact me to discuss what you need to know before you sell!

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

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The Chris & Caleb Team Assessment: If it isn’t painful….

It’s said that we don’t grow or make a change until something is painful. Well folks, I hope you are making a change because the way things have been the last 10 years has created the pain we are experiencing now. It certainly seems that we are all looking for change – first in electing the current president and now in the wave of change from this recent election. The real estate market in Chester County is going to through another painful shift which is obvious when you look at Supply, Demand and Intended Demand. Let’s look closer. . .

PENDINGS:

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Last month, we said that we didn’t think we would see much of a rise in pendings. For the most part, we were right, the number of pendings is up slightly. This tick upward does follow the 5 year trend. And while the Chris & Caleb team has seen an increase in general activity in the market, the number of pendings are still off by a whooping 37% from their 5 year trend. If you compare the numbers to this time last year the gap is even wider, yet that was during the end of the first tax credit, which inflates the numbers. Due to the increase in general market activity, it would not surprise us if pendings continued to be a bit higher than usual. The market needs it. But we do believe the holiday slump will inevitably happen and we expect it to be quite quiet between Thanksgiving and New Year.

CLOSED SALES (DEMAND):

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Another area where we are seeing this market correction is in the number of closed sales, which were off by 28% from the 5 year trend. Basically, this number lags behind the pending number by about 45-60 days. While this correction is painful, we 100% believe it is healthy and needed. Next month may see a slight upward bump, due to slight increase in pendings in October, but not too much. Overall, we believe title and closing companies are going to be busier than expected in November and December.

ACTIVE LISTINGS (SUPPLY)

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This number is still quite elevated – up almost 10% from the 5 year trend. An interesting correlation is that the amount of homes on the market that are distressed homes in Chester County (Foreclosures, short sales) is about 10-12%, depending on the day. Granted, there are almost always some measure of distressed properties for sale, but they typically are less than 1%. In order for the market to get healthier and more balanced, one thing that must happen is that the number of distressed properties for sale must dry up. That’s gonna be hard to do – it will take a few years. The thing that sucks even more is that distressed properties drive prices down. They won’t go away until prices stabilize… so you can see it’s quite a rock and a hard place we’ve put ourselves in. . . Luckily, Chester County has been and will be very insulated from negative market forces (our unemployment is around the 7% mark, compared to almost 10% nationally).

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE:

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This number is one that is closer to the 5 year trend. Really all this number indicates is what price range has been selling. We expect this number to ride slightly higher than the trend, mostly because many of the first time home buyers that bought in the spring, driving the average sale price pretty low, already bought. So the buyers in the market right now are more higher end buyers. In addition, many home owners who were first time buyers 5 or so years ago have probably seen the values of their homes go well below what they bought them for originally and can’t sell, even if they wanted to.

LIST TO SALE PRICE RATIO:

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We don’t usually show you this graph, but felt it needed to be discussed quickly. This number is one that shows us if prices are going down, up or stabilizing. Right now, and over the last two years, the prices have been declining. What is very clear when looking at this chart is that after about May or June, there was a significant correction, which appears to still be ironing itself out.  We will know that the market has gotten through a majority of it’s “pain” when this ratio is closer to the 5 year trend in the upper 90′s. Right now, everything is telling us that prices continue to have a lot of pressure pushing them lower.

What Does This Mean??

Overall: Prices continue to come down. Painfully, we have not hit bottom. The overall economy and the consumers confidence in that must come up and the unemployment numbers must go down along with the inventory of distressed properties. When that happens, you will see the amount of inventory come down, demand go up and the list to sale price ratio come up as well. Painful – we know, but it’s reality.

For Sellers: If you have or are going to have your home on the market, now is not the time to have a ho-hum agent by your side. You are getting into shark infested waters. You need an expert in the current market to help you navigate to get the best price for your home in the right time frame. If you don’t need to sell, now is NOT the time to test the market. Get serious or get out. We sell 7x’s more homes than the average agent. We get almost 4% more for our clients homes than other agents would. You want us by your side, so contact us – 484-696-4833.

For Buyers: Just as it is with sellers, you need an incredible agent as well. One that knows the market. There are plenty of issues out there that can really get you into trouble and if your agent has not sold many homes in the last 12 months, then you are putting yourself at risk. Please call us and let us interview for the job of representing you in the purchase of your next home. 484-696-4833.

Next Steps:

• What Is My Home Worth? Want to get a good idea of what your home is worth? Complete my Home Value Survey and find out what your Chester County Home is worth. . .
• What Is That Home Selling For? “Stop the car, honey … look at that house. I wonder what it’s selling for” Does this ever happen to you? Ever wonder what that house is selling for? Search and view all homes for sale in the Chester County area
• What do I need to know before I sell? Typically when a home does not sell, there is one reason…and it isn’t price. Please contact me to discuss what you need to know before you sell!

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

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The Chris & Caleb Team Assessment: More of the same…

Yup, more of the same. Supply of homes for sale continues to climb, pending sales and closed sales continue to drop. The only thing going up is the average sales price and that doesn’t say what most might think it does. Let’s take a closer look.

PENDINGS:

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While it is expected that Pending sales typically drop slightly in Chester County in September, it is not what we wanted to see this year. Pending sales are off by about 38% from the 5 year trend. That trend is showing that we might expect an increase next month, but we predict that they will remain flat at best. The general consensus among real estate agents in this area is that they are not getting many showings on their listings and buyers are difficult to find. To us, that says that an increase in pendings in October is unlikely.

CLOSED SALES (DEMAND):

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While the gap between closed sales this year and the 5 year trend closed slightly in September, they were still off the mark by 21%. July was off by a whopping 37%. Seasonally we expect sales to drop from August to September, but with the market being off already, it’s not a positive sign that activity is still low. The trend for the next 3 is for the numbers to remain level and then drop for December and January. We predict that closed sales will drop a little more over the next several months and that December and January will be very slow. This is based mostly on the pending numbers and what we feel the general consensus is among the buyers and sellers that we talk to.

ACTIVE LISTINGS (SUPPLY):

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This is one number that we actually want to drop, yet it isn’t. The statistics tracking that we have access to only goes back about 10 years and in the last 10 years, we have never seen inventory levels this high in Chester County. In September, the inventory was up 11% over the 5 year trend. This is even more than last month. When demand is down and supply is up, prices MUST come down. This is a double edged sword. While it means that home prices will be even further on sale, it will probably increase the amount of distressed sales, which are already 11% of the market. Supply will come down over the next 3-5 months, but not because homes are actually selling. For those in tough positions already, this will not be good news.

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE:

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Surprisingly, despite the slow down in activity, the average sale price is up, by 5% over the 5 year trend. This is purely an indicator that homes at the higher end of the spectrum are selling. This is most likely due to incredible interest rates. Not to mention, the fact that higher end homes have taken more of a price hit than the lower ranges ($400,000 and above). The market has obviously shifted from the first time home buyer to the move up and luxury buyer, which is what we predicted would happen back in April and May.

What Does This Mean??

Overall: Last month we said what we felt was the cause for this prolonged recession in real estate, which is mainly the overall economy, unemployment and the distressed property inventory, simply put. With inventory continuing to go up and demand slowing down, it simply means that prices are going to have to come down, even further than they already have. If rates stay low through next year, which appears to be necessary, then this coming Spring could be a really great time to buy, if you can afford to do so. Of course that all depends on the overall economy.

For Sellers: It’s time to tighten the belt. If you are considering selling, then talk to the BEST, most honest agent you can find… Us, of course. You need to get a highly accurate assessment of what’s going on and if you can afford to do what you need to do. If you are currently trying to sell your house, then you will most likely need to readjust your numbers if you want to sell your home before next March. And a small price adjustment, most likely, will not do it. It’s a very precarious time to be selling a home and you must have an agent or agents on your side that study this market and know it well or you could put yourself in a very difficult spot.

For Buyers: It is just as important that you hire the best agent that you can find as it is for those selling. The best agent is going to help you understand the entire picture of what you are trying to do and help you interpret the market and how best to take advantage of the opportunities available to you. It’s not the type of market or time to buy something that you are only going to own for a year or two. We are telling our clients that you will need to be in the home at least 5  years in order to see some amount of appreciation. And if you are only putting 3.5% down, then you will most likely need to be there longer if you want to sell the home in the future for any amount of profit. Contact us today to talk to some of the very best agents in the Chester County area.

Next Steps:

• What Is My Home Worth? Want to get a good idea of what your home is worth? Complete my Home Value Survey and find out what your Chester County Home is worth. . .
• What Is That Home Selling For? “Stop the car, honey … look at that house. I wonder what it’s selling for” Does this ever happen to you? Ever wonder what that house is selling for? Search and view all homes for sale in the Chester County area
• What do I need to know before I sell? Typically when a home does not sell, there is one reason…and it isn’t price. Please contact me to discuss what you need to know before you sell!

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

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The Chris & Caleb Team Assessment: “Rollercoaster!! Oooh, ooh, ooh!”

In July we saw the closed sales catch up with the sorrowful stats for pending sales. It is very safe to say that we are going through a “Cleansing” of sorts. So while the supply is not dropping, the number of ready, willing and able buyers certainly were “flushed out” by the tax credit. Let’s take a closer look…

PENDINGS:

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Pendings indicate future closed sales and as such, we can expect the number of future closed sales to take, yet another, hit in the next coming months as a result of August’s pending numbers. While it looks bad, you must keep in mind that pending sales traditionally take a dip in August. It is the height of vacation season and everyone is getting ready for school, so buying a home is not the first thing on everyone’s mind. Next month, if we follow trends, we will see the pending number inch back up.  Conclusion – looks like the market is still in a stall.

CLOSED SALES (DEMAND):

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The closed sales (AKA Demand) is mirroring, very closely, the line for Pending Sales. If this continues, we can very safely say that closed sales, beyond October will be very dismal, as the current trend for this year is off by more than 30%. If you are thinking of selling your home, do it now, before the end of October.

ACTIVE LISTINGS (SUPPLY):

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It looks like the Supply of homes for sale in Chester county is at about the same level as last month. As you can see, this follows the 5 year trend, which is indicated by the Red line. We believe, based on 30% less sales, that inventory will certainly stay at unusually elevated ranges through the remainder of the year, into next year.

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE:

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Due to VERY, VERY low mortgage rates, higher priced homes are now selling. Earlier in the year, many of the homes sold were most likely sold to “First time home buyers”, (Tax credit). Now it appears that those looking at higher priced homes ($350k +) are jumping on their chance to purchase a home at a great price and get the low interest rates. That is really what this chart indicates.

What Does This Mean??

OVERALL: The big problem in the market right now is two fold – First, confidence of the consumer and unemployment. Many people are very unsure about their employment and income situation or are out of a job all together. That doesn’t usually get people excited to buy a home when they are worried about whether they will get their next paycheck or not. Second is what is the distressed property inventory. When someone buys a home that is a foreclosure or short sale, there is no resulting sale from a home owner moving. That is a big issue, as that helps the chain to continue. That will be a major factor moving forward for the next three, maybe even five years, as foreclosures and short sales are not decreasing in their supply.

For Sellers: More of the same – If you don’t have to sell, you probably shouldn’t, UNLESS you are thinking of buying a bigger home and have lived in your current home for three years or more. In that case, there may be a very good chance that you could come out on the positive side for making that move. If you are thinking of doing that, please let us know and we can help you determine if it is worth it. If you must sell, choose your agent wisely. No matter your situation, there are only a few (really one team, us. . . ) agents out there that are doing a lot of business and that know this market well. Of course we want the chance to show you why more than 35 clients choose us since March of this year and why you should choose us. But it could mean the difference of attaining your dream or making a drastic mistake.

For Buyers: Interest rates continue to stay historically low. They can’t stay here forever. If inflation starts to happen, then rates will rise. So if you are ready, willing and able, there has never been a better time to purchase in the last 50+ years!! You have more choice than ever, prices are fantastic and you will save a TON of money with the interest rates. Call us to get your road map and get started!

Next Steps:

• What Is My Home Worth? Want to get a good idea of what your home is worth? Complete my Home Value Survey and find out what your Chester County Home is worth. . .
• What Is That Home Selling For? “Stop the car, honey … look at that house. I wonder what it’s selling for” Does this ever happen to you? Ever wonder what that house is selling for? Search and view all homes for sale in the Chester County area
• What do I need to know before I sell? Typically when a home does not sell, there is one reason…and it isn’t price. Please contact me to discuss what you need to know before you sell!

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

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The Chris & Caleb Team Assessment

Depending on whether your outlook is the “glass half full or empty”, the stats are either going to excite you or scare you. Let’s discuss what the stats are telling us…

PENDINGS: June was another “slow” month. Pendings were down at an extremely low point around the 300 mark. Typically pendings are between 450 and 550. Why the extreme drop? Simple – we said it last month and it’s the same again – the Tax Credit. The tax credit pulled many buyers from the future and enticed them to buy now instead of later. We expect activity to be lower than usual possibly through September when we see a bump in activity before the winter hibernation. The only way that these numbers can go is up. We expect them to climb slightly higher every month through the rest of the year, as there are no great incentives for people to run out and buy a home.

CLOSED SALES: Closed sales in June were right in line with the 5 year trend which was pushed higher by the tax credit. June was the last month that the tax credit will have an effect on closed sales, as there is typically at 45-60 day lag time between pending sales and closed sales. We predict we will see closed sales drop around 350 mark in July. This number again is unusually low, but with the last two months of pending sales being at record lows, there is little chance that closed sales will follow the 5 year trend or even last years numbers. It’s like we are in the slow months of December and January, where there pending sales are typically around the 300 mark and the subsequent months for closed sales are also around that level. The next two months will be a very telling as to how the fall market will shape up. If there is little showing activity, then we know that sales will continue to be low.

ACTIVE LISTINGS/SUPPLY: This number is one of those “scary” numbers. As you can see, inventory is at it’s highest level in the last 10 years. With demand being down and supply being up, prices have only one way to go and that is down. The gap between the supply and demand is pretty extreme which is concerning. However, the increase in the number of homes for sale could have been pushed by the tax credit. We’d really like to see the gap between supply and demand decrease of the next several months.

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE: The average sold price for a home sold in Chester County in June of 2010 was about $360,000. This number continues to follow a mix of the 5 year trend and 2009. This number is really more of an indication of what price range the activity is happening. For instance, in October of 2009, there as a heavy emphasis on the lower price ranges due to the looming end of the first tax credit. Of course, it was extended just before the expiration in November.

What Does This Mean?

For Seller’s: If you are considering or are selling a home in Chester County these numbers can be concerning. It means that the overall value has and will be declining. The Chris & Caleb team have been warning our clients of this for the last 6 months. It was very apparent that there would be a lull in activity following the end of the Tax Credit. But that was then, what do you do now? If you are considering selling your home but don’t think you can get enough for it, please contact us. We can get you the insight and advice you need to make the best decision possible. We expect the market to be “depressed” for another several years, possibly as many as 4 or 5. But that also means that what you are going to buy will be “on sale” as well. You may make out better now, than you would in several years. But to know that for sure, let us get you the facts and information you need to make that educated decision.

For Buyer’s: With interest rates being historically low at or around 4.7%, you continue to have a tremendous opportunity in front of you. Seller’s who need to sell are willing to give you a great deal, which will save you money. Combine that with the interest rates and you have a huge win. If you are a ready, willing and able buyer, you have tremendous power in the current market. BUT – you must make sure you align yourself with the right agent. We are confident that we are those agents. To know what your next steps are just get in contact with us!

Next Steps:

• What Is My Home Worth? Want to get a good idea of what your home is worth? Complete my Home Value Survey and find out what your Chester County Home is worth. . .
• What Is That Home Selling For? “Stop the car, honey … look at that house. I wonder what it’s selling for” Does this ever happen to you? Ever wonder what that house is selling for? Search and view all homes for sale in the Chester County area
• What do I need to know before I sell? Typically when a home does not sell, there is one reason…and it isn’t price. Please contact me to discuss what you need to know before you sell!

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

Supply of homes for sale in Chester County:

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Demand- Close home sales in Chester County:

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Pending home sales in Chester County:

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Average home sale price in Chester County:

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The Chris & Caleb Team Assessment:

After the marathon that March and April were, we knew we would probably be hearing some crickets in May. And boy did we EVER!

PENDINGS: Last month was the worst month on record for pending home sales in Chester County – at least in 10 years, if not 20 or more. The average over 5 years has been around the 500 mark – last month was 251! This drop in activity was expected by The Chris & Caleb Team, though not the severity. Basically what happened was that the activity the market saw in March and April stole from May, June and July. We expect the numbers for June and July to follow the same level of low activity, though we should see some increase, slowly back to the averages. Seasonally speaking, it is all downhill from here as you can tell, June is the last month of the spring market when a majority of the business is really done.

CLOSED SALES: These numbers are tracking slightly better than 2009, but that is most likely due to the activity spurred by the tax credit. By August the tax credit effect will have subsided and we will know truly where the market is tracking. We believe the market will track at or below 2009 levels, depending on what happens in the overall economy.

ACTIVE LISTINGS/SUPPLY: These numbers are also tracking with 2009. The disconcerting fact is that the supply does not appear to be dented by the tax credit activity. Ideally, that number should have come down slightly because of all that activity, and we still may see a slight adjustment as some of the “pending” homes actually settle. In the end, it’s economy 101 – if the demand is low, the supply goes up. As the supply goes up, the price comes down. We believe the rest of the year will be a repeat of 2009 as far as actives go.

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE: Nothing sensational here either. These numbers are tracking with last year as well. The number did see a bump in March, but that is probably due to a combination of jumbo loans becoming attractive again and as a result there was some movement in high price ranges.

What does this mean?

For Seller’s: Unfortunately, your home is worth less than it was in April. The market is slowing down, not only seasonally but due to the tax credit as well. If your home is currently on the market and was before May, then you should seriously look at your pricing strategy and see if an adjustment is in order. Most likely – it is, and certainly not an increase. If you are in a difficult position or need to sell quickly, then you need to be super aggressive with your pricing and marketing. If there is 10+ months worth of inventory and there are less than 1 home selling a month and you are competing with 10 other homes – you better be the CLEAR value and choice. It’s not the time for the faint at heart. . .

For Buyer’s: If you are qualified to buy a home and want to – now is a FANTASTIC time. There is a drought of sorts for qualified, willing buyers, which gives you a tremendous amount of power. Prices are adjusting downward and the interest rates are back below 5%. If you are thinking of buying, now is the time!

Next Steps:

• What Is My Home Worth? Want to get a good idea of what your home is worth? Complete my Home Value Survey and find out what your Chester County Home is worth. . .
• What Is That Home Selling For? “Stop the car, honey … look at that house. I wonder what it’s selling for” Does this ever happen to you? Ever wonder what that house is selling for? Search and view all homes for sale in the Chester County area
• What do I need to know before I sell? Typically when a home does not sell, there is one reason…and it isn’t price. Please contact me to discuss what you need to know before you sell!

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

Supply of Homes for Sale in Chester County:

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Demand- Closed home sales in Chester County:

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Pending Home Sales in Chester County:

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Average Sale price in Chester County:

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