The Chris & Caleb Team Assessment: More of the same, Move up Sellers/Buyers have opportunity…
We are pretty optimistic guys, and while the July stats are not “Doom and Gloom”, it definitely ain’t pretty either! Let’s take a look. . .
PENDINGS:
Pending indicates future closed sales. We at the Chris & Caleb Team refer to this as “Intended Demand”. Pending stats continue to climb out of the incredible hole that the tax credit put it in. Pendings grew to the 350 mark in July, but as you can see, it is still a good way away from where the 5 year trend is and even last years numbers. So, while it is a good sign that pendings are increasing, they are still way off the norm, indicating a slower than usual market.
CLOSED SALES:
Closed Sales or “Demand” for homes in July was way down. We have been warning of this for the last several months after we saw the pendings drop off after the end of the tax credit. It was only a matter of time before the drop caught up with actual closed transactions. Closed sales were off almost a WHOPPING 40%! But, as we have seen in Pending Sales indicators, this number will most likely not stay down that far for long. We feel strongly the rest of 2010 will most likely be off by about 20% or more in closed sales.
ACTIVE LISTINGS/SUPPLY:
This number is the probably the most concerning of all the numbers we see. Right now the number of homes for sale is roughly 12% over what the 5 year trend is, and easily the most we have seen in recent history. Economics 101 – Demand slows, supply increases – it means prices come down and everything slows down. With recent news that experts say that the 2011 economy is going to be worse than this years, these numbers are not good. Buckle up folks, as if things are tough already, it’s gonna get tougher.
AVERAGE SOLD PRICE:
The average sold price is much more of an indicator as to what price range is selling than it is of what our homes are worth in Chester County. It appears that in July, higher end homes were the hot ticket item. We believe this was driven by “Move Up” seller/buyers who were selling their “First time home buyer” homes to Tax Credit buyers and then looking for a larger, move up home. In addition, interest rates have been extremely attractive for higher end buyers who have been on the fence, just waiting for such a time. It is very likely that August’s numbers will rejoin 2009′s numbers.
What Does This Mean?
For Sellers: Unfortunately, nothing new for seller’s. Not to be a broken record, but if you don’t have to sell, you probably shouldn’t. We will say this, one type of home owner that would greatly benefit from selling right now would be what we call a “MOVE UP SELLER/BUYER”. This is someone who has outgrown their current home for one reason or another and wants to buy a larger house. While you won’t get as much for you home as a few years ago, the same goes for the home you want to buy, if not more so. If your home’s value has declined 5% in the last several years, you can be that the larger home that you want is even more on sale. Plus 5% at $200k vs 5% at $400k is quite a difference. Factor in the incredibly low interest rates (4.5% conventional) and this could be the deal of the century. If you are considering selling your home but don’t think you can get enough for it, please contact us. We can get you the insight and advice you need to make the best decision possible. We expect the market to be “depressed” for another several years, possibly as many as 4 or 5. But that also means that what you are going to buy will be “on sale” as well. You may make out better now, than you would in several years. But to know that for sure, let us get you the facts and information you need to make that educated decision.
For Buyers: For those lucky few who are qualified and ready to buy, this in an incredible time to do so. Mortgage rates are historically low at 4.5% for 30 yr conv. or 3.8% for 15 year fixed. With inventory going up, seller’s will have more and more competition which means their prices will have to come down. BUT – you must make sure you align yourself with the right agent. We are confident that we are those agents. To know what your next steps are just get in contact with us!
Next Steps:
- What Is My Home Worth? Want to get a good idea of what your home is worth? Complete my Home Value Survey and find out what your Chester County Home is worth. . .
- What Is That Home Selling For? “Stop the car, honey … look at that house. I wonder what it’s selling for” Does this ever happen to you? Ever wonder what that house is selling for? Search and view all homes for sale in the Chester County area
- What do I need to know before I sell? Typically when a home does not sell, there is one reason…and it isn’t price. Please contact me to discuss what you need to know before you sell!
BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

























