Click to Enlarge

The Chris & Caleb Team Assessment: “Rollercoaster!! Oooh, ooh, ooh!”

In July we saw the closed sales catch up with the sorrowful stats for pending sales. It is very safe to say that we are going through a “Cleansing” of sorts. So while the supply is not dropping, the number of ready, willing and able buyers certainly were “flushed out” by the tax credit. Let’s take a closer look…

PENDINGS:

Click to Enlarge

Pendings indicate future closed sales and as such, we can expect the number of future closed sales to take, yet another, hit in the next coming months as a result of August’s pending numbers. While it looks bad, you must keep in mind that pending sales traditionally take a dip in August. It is the height of vacation season and everyone is getting ready for school, so buying a home is not the first thing on everyone’s mind. Next month, if we follow trends, we will see the pending number inch back up.  Conclusion – looks like the market is still in a stall.

CLOSED SALES (DEMAND):

Click to Enlarge

The closed sales (AKA Demand) is mirroring, very closely, the line for Pending Sales. If this continues, we can very safely say that closed sales, beyond October will be very dismal, as the current trend for this year is off by more than 30%. If you are thinking of selling your home, do it now, before the end of October.

ACTIVE LISTINGS (SUPPLY):

Click to Enlarge

It looks like the Supply of homes for sale in Chester county is at about the same level as last month. As you can see, this follows the 5 year trend, which is indicated by the Red line. We believe, based on 30% less sales, that inventory will certainly stay at unusually elevated ranges through the remainder of the year, into next year.

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE:

Click to Enlarge

Due to VERY, VERY low mortgage rates, higher priced homes are now selling. Earlier in the year, many of the homes sold were most likely sold to “First time home buyers”, (Tax credit). Now it appears that those looking at higher priced homes ($350k +) are jumping on their chance to purchase a home at a great price and get the low interest rates. That is really what this chart indicates.

What Does This Mean??

OVERALL: The big problem in the market right now is two fold – First, confidence of the consumer and unemployment. Many people are very unsure about their employment and income situation or are out of a job all together. That doesn’t usually get people excited to buy a home when they are worried about whether they will get their next paycheck or not. Second is what is the distressed property inventory. When someone buys a home that is a foreclosure or short sale, there is no resulting sale from a home owner moving. That is a big issue, as that helps the chain to continue. That will be a major factor moving forward for the next three, maybe even five years, as foreclosures and short sales are not decreasing in their supply.

For Sellers: More of the same – If you don’t have to sell, you probably shouldn’t, UNLESS you are thinking of buying a bigger home and have lived in your current home for three years or more. In that case, there may be a very good chance that you could come out on the positive side for making that move. If you are thinking of doing that, please let us know and we can help you determine if it is worth it. If you must sell, choose your agent wisely. No matter your situation, there are only a few (really one team, us. . . ) agents out there that are doing a lot of business and that know this market well. Of course we want the chance to show you why more than 35 clients choose us since March of this year and why you should choose us. But it could mean the difference of attaining your dream or making a drastic mistake.

For Buyers: Interest rates continue to stay historically low. They can’t stay here forever. If inflation starts to happen, then rates will rise. So if you are ready, willing and able, there has never been a better time to purchase in the last 50+ years!! You have more choice than ever, prices are fantastic and you will save a TON of money with the interest rates. Call us to get your road map and get started!

Next Steps:

• What Is My Home Worth? Want to get a good idea of what your home is worth? Complete my Home Value Survey and find out what your Chester County Home is worth. . .
• What Is That Home Selling For? “Stop the car, honey … look at that house. I wonder what it’s selling for” Does this ever happen to you? Ever wonder what that house is selling for? Search and view all homes for sale in the Chester County area
• What do I need to know before I sell? Typically when a home does not sell, there is one reason…and it isn’t price. Please contact me to discuss what you need to know before you sell!

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

Share on Facebook

Technorati Tags: Chester County, Market Update, Monthly Update

Click to Enlarge

The Chris & Caleb Team Assessment

Depending on whether your outlook is the “glass half full or empty”, the stats are either going to excite you or scare you. Let’s discuss what the stats are telling us…

PENDINGS: June was another “slow” month. Pendings were down at an extremely low point around the 300 mark. Typically pendings are between 450 and 550. Why the extreme drop? Simple – we said it last month and it’s the same again – the Tax Credit. The tax credit pulled many buyers from the future and enticed them to buy now instead of later. We expect activity to be lower than usual possibly through September when we see a bump in activity before the winter hibernation. The only way that these numbers can go is up. We expect them to climb slightly higher every month through the rest of the year, as there are no great incentives for people to run out and buy a home.

CLOSED SALES: Closed sales in June were right in line with the 5 year trend which was pushed higher by the tax credit. June was the last month that the tax credit will have an effect on closed sales, as there is typically at 45-60 day lag time between pending sales and closed sales. We predict we will see closed sales drop around 350 mark in July. This number again is unusually low, but with the last two months of pending sales being at record lows, there is little chance that closed sales will follow the 5 year trend or even last years numbers. It’s like we are in the slow months of December and January, where there pending sales are typically around the 300 mark and the subsequent months for closed sales are also around that level. The next two months will be a very telling as to how the fall market will shape up. If there is little showing activity, then we know that sales will continue to be low.

ACTIVE LISTINGS/SUPPLY: This number is one of those “scary” numbers. As you can see, inventory is at it’s highest level in the last 10 years. With demand being down and supply being up, prices have only one way to go and that is down. The gap between the supply and demand is pretty extreme which is concerning. However, the increase in the number of homes for sale could have been pushed by the tax credit. We’d really like to see the gap between supply and demand decrease of the next several months.

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE: The average sold price for a home sold in Chester County in June of 2010 was about $360,000. This number continues to follow a mix of the 5 year trend and 2009. This number is really more of an indication of what price range the activity is happening. For instance, in October of 2009, there as a heavy emphasis on the lower price ranges due to the looming end of the first tax credit. Of course, it was extended just before the expiration in November.

What Does This Mean?

For Seller’s: If you are considering or are selling a home in Chester County these numbers can be concerning. It means that the overall value has and will be declining. The Chris & Caleb team have been warning our clients of this for the last 6 months. It was very apparent that there would be a lull in activity following the end of the Tax Credit. But that was then, what do you do now? If you are considering selling your home but don’t think you can get enough for it, please contact us. We can get you the insight and advice you need to make the best decision possible. We expect the market to be “depressed” for another several years, possibly as many as 4 or 5. But that also means that what you are going to buy will be “on sale” as well. You may make out better now, than you would in several years. But to know that for sure, let us get you the facts and information you need to make that educated decision.

For Buyer’s: With interest rates being historically low at or around 4.7%, you continue to have a tremendous opportunity in front of you. Seller’s who need to sell are willing to give you a great deal, which will save you money. Combine that with the interest rates and you have a huge win. If you are a ready, willing and able buyer, you have tremendous power in the current market. BUT – you must make sure you align yourself with the right agent. We are confident that we are those agents. To know what your next steps are just get in contact with us!

Next Steps:

• What Is My Home Worth? Want to get a good idea of what your home is worth? Complete my Home Value Survey and find out what your Chester County Home is worth. . .
• What Is That Home Selling For? “Stop the car, honey … look at that house. I wonder what it’s selling for” Does this ever happen to you? Ever wonder what that house is selling for? Search and view all homes for sale in the Chester County area
• What do I need to know before I sell? Typically when a home does not sell, there is one reason…and it isn’t price. Please contact me to discuss what you need to know before you sell!

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

Supply of homes for sale in Chester County:

Click to Enlarge

Demand- Close home sales in Chester County:

Click to Enlarge

Pending home sales in Chester County:

Click to Enlarge

Average home sale price in Chester County:

Click to Enlarge

Share on Facebook

Technorati Tags: Chester County, Home Sale prices, Market Update, Pending Home Sales

Pennsbury Township Board of Supervisors will consider requiring Use and Occupancy inspections at point of sale. The proposed ordinance contains several points which are of concern to the Suburban REALTORS® Alliance, including a $200 fee for inspections. Click here for the full text of the proposed ordinance. The Pennsbury Board of Supervisors Meeting will take place on Wednesday, June 16 at 7 pm in the Pennsbury Township Building, 702 Baltimore Pike, Chadds Ford. Please email esmist@suburbanrealtorsalliance.com if you have any questions or plan to attend the meeting.

Coatesville Council considering revisions to budget

Coatesville City administrators have asked council to revise the city’s 2010 budget due to additional, unforeseen expenditures apparently omitted in the original spending plan. Administrators proposed a revised budget of about $10.7 million at a special meeting last week. The 2010 budget was originally approved at $9.9 million. Council Vice President Karl Marking said council previously thought any revisions would reduce the budget. Council expects to address the proposed budget revision at its June 14 meeting.

Source: Daily Local; 6/10/10

Great Valley passes budget with 1.5% tax increase

In a close vote Monday, the Great Valley School Board approved a $76.1 million budget for the 2010-2011 school year with a 1.5 percent millage increase. The increase will raise school taxes about $62 a year for the average household. Four board members voted against the measure and were in favor of raising taxes 2.9 percent, the maximum allowed under Act 1 without using exceptions.

Source: Daily Local; 6/9/10

Chester County working on stormwater ordinances

The Chester County Water Resources Authority is working with the county‘s 73 municipalities to brainstorm possible changes to stormwater management ordinances as part of an effort to develop a county-wide plan. Many of the surrounding counties either already have a county-wide Act 167 plan or are in the process of developing one. Act 167 requires counties to prepare and adopt stormwater managment plans for each watershed located in a county.

Source: Daily Local; 6/7/10

Share on Facebook

Technorati Tags: Chester County, Real Estate News

Click to Enlarge

The Chris & Caleb Team Assessment:

After the marathon that March and April were, we knew we would probably be hearing some crickets in May. And boy did we EVER!

PENDINGS: Last month was the worst month on record for pending home sales in Chester County – at least in 10 years, if not 20 or more. The average over 5 years has been around the 500 mark – last month was 251! This drop in activity was expected by The Chris & Caleb Team, though not the severity. Basically what happened was that the activity the market saw in March and April stole from May, June and July. We expect the numbers for June and July to follow the same level of low activity, though we should see some increase, slowly back to the averages. Seasonally speaking, it is all downhill from here as you can tell, June is the last month of the spring market when a majority of the business is really done.

CLOSED SALES: These numbers are tracking slightly better than 2009, but that is most likely due to the activity spurred by the tax credit. By August the tax credit effect will have subsided and we will know truly where the market is tracking. We believe the market will track at or below 2009 levels, depending on what happens in the overall economy.

ACTIVE LISTINGS/SUPPLY: These numbers are also tracking with 2009. The disconcerting fact is that the supply does not appear to be dented by the tax credit activity. Ideally, that number should have come down slightly because of all that activity, and we still may see a slight adjustment as some of the “pending” homes actually settle. In the end, it’s economy 101 – if the demand is low, the supply goes up. As the supply goes up, the price comes down. We believe the rest of the year will be a repeat of 2009 as far as actives go.

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE: Nothing sensational here either. These numbers are tracking with last year as well. The number did see a bump in March, but that is probably due to a combination of jumbo loans becoming attractive again and as a result there was some movement in high price ranges.

What does this mean?

For Seller’s: Unfortunately, your home is worth less than it was in April. The market is slowing down, not only seasonally but due to the tax credit as well. If your home is currently on the market and was before May, then you should seriously look at your pricing strategy and see if an adjustment is in order. Most likely – it is, and certainly not an increase. If you are in a difficult position or need to sell quickly, then you need to be super aggressive with your pricing and marketing. If there is 10+ months worth of inventory and there are less than 1 home selling a month and you are competing with 10 other homes – you better be the CLEAR value and choice. It’s not the time for the faint at heart. . .

For Buyer’s: If you are qualified to buy a home and want to – now is a FANTASTIC time. There is a drought of sorts for qualified, willing buyers, which gives you a tremendous amount of power. Prices are adjusting downward and the interest rates are back below 5%. If you are thinking of buying, now is the time!

Next Steps:

• What Is My Home Worth? Want to get a good idea of what your home is worth? Complete my Home Value Survey and find out what your Chester County Home is worth. . .
• What Is That Home Selling For? “Stop the car, honey … look at that house. I wonder what it’s selling for” Does this ever happen to you? Ever wonder what that house is selling for? Search and view all homes for sale in the Chester County area
• What do I need to know before I sell? Typically when a home does not sell, there is one reason…and it isn’t price. Please contact me to discuss what you need to know before you sell!

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

Supply of Homes for Sale in Chester County:

Click to Enlarge

Demand- Closed home sales in Chester County:

Click to Enlarge

Pending Home Sales in Chester County:

Click to Enlarge

Average Sale price in Chester County:

Click to Enlarge

Share on Facebook

Technorati Tags: Chester County, Market Update, Monthly Update

Tredyffrin Township Supervisors are considering an ordinance to regulate student housing. Either a by-right or special-exception ordinance could be enacted. A by-right zoning ordinance would state that use of a property would be approved as long as it was in compliance with the ordinance, and special exception means that the Zoning Hearing Board would decide if an applicant is complying with the ordinance. The special exception would require the applicant to go through the ordinance and show how their project achieves compliance. The township has received complaints about problems near homes being rented to students relating to noise, traffic, parking and property maintenance.

Source: Main Line Suburban Life; 5/26/2010

Groups urge county to maintain open-space preservation

A group of land preservation advocates met with the Chester County commissioners Wednesday to urge them not to reduce the amount of county tax dollars spent to save open space, but got no guarantees their wishes would be fulfilled. Although the commissioners said that no decision had been made on what level of funding they would commit in open-space preservation funds next year, county officials did lay out for the advocates just what a precarious financial picture awaits the county as it begins preparing a budget. The county faces a reduction in funding from state sources for a variety of programs — including human services, libraries, transportation and court operations — that it cannot ignore. At the same time, county tax revenues have flattened because of a stagnant real estate market, assessment appeals are up, and the county has had to fund an increasing amount for its employee pension fund. In the past two years, the county has set an annual contribution to the land preservation efforts of $20 million. There has been some fear in the land preservation community — and some suggestion from county officials outside the commissioners’ office — that the figure might be reduced by as much as 50 percent. The groups meeting with the commissioners included about 15 officials from the Natural Lands Trust; the Willistown Conservation Trust; Safety, Agriculture, Villages and Environment (SAVE); the municipalities of Honey Brook, West Vincent, and East Pikeland; and representatives of the Chester County Agricultural Land Preservation Board.

Source: Daily Local; 5/27/2010

Study focuses on future of Route 322 corridor

A new report released recently by the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission focuses on the Route 322 corridor, which was identified as an area that could be facing future congestion problems. Working with the Chester County Planning Commission, DVRPC conducted an analysis of the corridor to assess land use, environmental policies and impacts, and transportation issues. David Anderson, manager of the office of corridor planning at the DVRPC, said the study was started in 2008 and the first draft was completed about a year ago. It was then presented to local and county officials for their input. The corridor, a 15-mile section from the Lancaster County border in Honey Brook Township to U.S. Business Route 30 in Downingtown, was identified from a previous study as a roadway with the potential to face more congestion because of development pressure. The study area includes Downingtown and Honey Brook boroughs, and the townships of Caln, West Brandywine, East Brandywine, Honey Brook and West Nantmeal. According to the report, the current population of the study area is more than 44,000 people and is forecast to increase by 38 percent by 2035. It’s also forecast that Chester County will grow by 31 percent, but West Brandywine will grow by 59 percent and East Brandywine by 46 percent. The report forecasts that employment in the seven municipalities will also increase. In 2005, about 20,000 residents were employed in the study group municipalities with about 7,200 jobs in Downingtown and 7,254 jobs in Caln. DVRPC estimates that the total number of jobs will increase 24 percent by 2035 with most of the new jobs centered in Caln.

Source: Daily Local; 5/27/2010

West Pikeland to pursue public sewage plan

West Pikeland Township supervisors last week agreed to pursue a plan that will provide access by some residents to much-needed public sewage services. The township authorized engineer David Linahan to draft a public sewer plan for the Windolph Knoll area. Originally, officials thought more than 100 homes needed public sewer access. But on May 17, Linahan reported only 60 homes in the Pickering Estates area, east of Route 113 and south of Route 401, were in need. The cost for Windolph Knoll with capacity for 60 homes is unknown but will be paid by homeowners requiring the services, officials said.  Linahan will submit the draft plan to planning commissions for the township and Chester County and to the county health department. Once those officials review the document and the appropriate changes are made, the public will have a chance to comment. Linahan has been instructed to draft a plan and investigate alternatives for presentation at the board’s next meeting on June 21.

Source: Daily Local; 5/26/2010

West Chester schools approve tax increase

The West Chester Area School Board on Monday night approved a 2010-2011 budget that includes a 2.83 percent property tax increase. The average increase for the district’s Chester County residents will be $98, while the average increase for its Delaware County residents will be $28, according to district officials. The average tax bill in the district’s Chester County portion, where the average assessed home value is $189,950, will be $3,343; the average tax bill in the district’s Delaware County portion, where the average assessed home value is $289,443, will be $3,980. The district finance committee two weeks ago recommended a budget that included a 3.3 percent tax increase. Board member Maria Armandi Pimley on Monday proposed an amendment to that recommendation that brought the increase to 2.83 percent, and five of the eight board members present voted to accept her amendment.

Source: Daily Local; 5/25/2010

Share on Facebook

Technorati Tags: Chester County, Real Estate News

Click to Enlarge

The Chris & Caleb Team Assessment:

The tax credit has officially ended!! And good riddance. . . This was a nice gesture by the government to help kick start the market, but it is time to see if the market can stand on its own. That will take another three months while the market flushes out the remnants of tax credit. I firmly believe we will see a slight dip in prices, with the demand falling about 25- 30%. It won’t drastically effect prices but it will be a healthy correction.

Let’s talk about what the numbers are telling us. Let’s start with “DEMAND” or closed sales. Closed sales in April were around 400 mark, hovering just below the 5 year trend and a good deal above what it was this time last year. May and June will continue to see an unusual increase, following the unusual, but expected, increase in pending sales this month. I have to tell you – the last two weekends of April, people were going nuts! It really wasn’t healthy.

Next is the Active Listings or “SUPPLY”. For the month of April, this number jumped above what they were even a year ago. I believe we can, again, contribute this to the tax credit. When supply goes up, prices typically go down. The good news is that this inventory should be eaten up at with the tax credit buyers. This happened late last year in the last month of the tax credit. Let’s hope this is the case, because if a lot of inventory is left on the books, prices will fall more significantly than otherwise.

“INTENDED DEMAND” or pendings is next. This measures how many homes were sold but not settled in April. As you can see this number jumped dramatically. The 5 year trend typically sees about a 10% increase from March to April. This year it saw about a 30% increase! That’s pretty significant, especially considering that May should be even more dramatic. We could even see that number go way above the 5 year trend. Again, this is all driven by the government subsidies and aid of the tax credit.

Last is the “AVERAGE SOLD PRICE”. This one surprised me. Seasonally we see a bit of an increase, maybe a 5%-6% increase over March. This year it was more around the 10% mark.This is a clear indication that homes above the $300k mark are moving, not just first time home buyer homes. We have been watching this segment of the market since the beginning of the year and noticing an increase in confidence. This is also helped by the tax credit, but to a lesser degree than the first time home buyer. If this trend can keep up, which we believe it will, it will mean good news to those who have been thinking of selling their homes in the $300k – $700k. We feel that in the next 3 – 6 months, we will see a lot of “Move Up Buyer” homes selling as the seller’s of first time home buyer homes become buyer’s of move up homes. The Average Sold Pirce will be a telling sign of where the activity in the market is.

What does this mean?

For Seller’s: If you are a “Move Up” seller, meaning you have a home that would sell to a first time home buyer, in the $300k range or under, I have to say that you have missed the boat. The tax credit is over and it may be another 18 – 24 months before you can the type of money for your home as you could have in the first half of this year. If you have a home that is a “Move up” home, meaning it is in the $300k- $700k range and you have been thinking of moving on or need to relocate, now is the time. That market is going to be flooded very shortly with buyers that need to buy. And as always, if you must sell for either reason of relocation, hardship or otherwise, please contact us immediately and we can show you why more than 50 client’s have choosen the Chris and Caleb Real Estate Team for their Chester County Real Estate needs.

For Buyer’s: As a buyer, there is both good and bad news. You have missed the tax credit, but the good news is that prices will adjust and you will have less competition in the market. Interest rates are still historically low, just above 5%, but will not remain there. Now is the time to buy. And if you have a home to sell, as a “Move Up Buyer”, give us a call now, so that we can help you determine the best next step for you and your family.

Active Listings (Supply):

Click to enlarge

Sales Close By Month (DEMAND)

Click to Enlarge

Pending Homes Sales By Month (INTENDED DEMAND)

Click to Enlarge

Average Sale Price in Chester County

Click to Enlarge

Share on Facebook

Technorati Tags: Chester County, Market Update, Monthly Update

Click to Enlarge

Chris’s Assessment

March ended up being fairly predictable. I had said in last month that the Tax Credit was going to have an affect on sales and it certainly is. If you look at the “DEMAND” chart, you can see that the number of closed sales are up around the 5 year trend line, not last years low numbers. That’s good and predictable. In fact 56% of the closed sales in March were in the “First time home buyers” market of $300k or under. In fact 60% of those sales were in the $200k-$300k price range, and that is why the average sale price is very low again.

Another positive and predictable sign is the PENDING sales or  what I call “intended demand”. In February that number was lower than 2009, but we also had a TON of snow, which can arguably be said to have affected that number. That number is back up above 2009 levels. I expect and predict that the Pendings for April will be even higher due to the tax credit.  One sign that could be negative, at least for sellers, is that the supply is on track to be at record high levels again. When supply is high and demand is not meeting that supply, prices will come down. Economics 101.

I actually feel the prices are still a bit on the high side and do need to come down. That is why I am also counting the days until the tax credit expires. And no, there is absolutely no news or rumors of it being extended. So, for-real for-real, if you want and can take advantage of it, you better get your butt in gear and call me. So what does all this mean? Let’s find out. . .

For Seller’s: At this point, if you are looking to sell your home, you have all but missed the window of opportunity. If you call me today, and I mean TODAY, we could get you up and running to see if we can get you on the “Tax credit wave”. We have only 3 weekends left before the tax credit, as we know it, is gone. That isn’t much time. In my opinion, your home is worth more now for the next three weeks than it could be for the next 18 – 24 months. So if you need to sell or are considering a move in the next 18 – 24 months, we need to act now.

Need to sell? We love helping homeowners in the Chester County area prepare to sell their home. Contact us now to get our list of the 5 most common ways that Home Seller’s leave money on the table. We’d be happy to help you get the most for your home.

For Buyer’s: You only have 3 more weeks left to take advantage of the $8000 tax credit. If this is important to you then you need to act now. In addition, mortgage rates have been inching up. At the last update, rates were around 4.875% for a 30 yr conventional loan. Now they are at 5.25% and climbing. Every 0.5% increase will increase your monthly payment by about $50. There is no telling where they will be at the end of this year, but it is safe to say not as low as they are now.

Right now, as a buyer, your purchasing power is at a high point. If you have some cash set aside and you qualify for a good mortgage, then you have the power to buy. That puts you in a VERY good position. I highly recommend you take steps to become a home owner. If that is you, please contact me, as I can help you put together a plan to get there.

Active Listings (Supply)

Click to Enlarge

• As predicted, supply is on the rise.
• Demand has increased which is good
• It would be better if the increase in supply were to ease off a bit creating less inventory and therefore a more centrist market.
• Next month will probably follow a similar pattern by increasing. I’d like to see it not increase as much as last year and have the tax credit eat into a bunch of that supply.

Sales Closed By Month (Demand)

Click to enlarge

• Big increase in March in closed sales. It appears as though the good weather brought out all those deterred by the snow.
• The increase is bigger than seasonally expected, I believe, clearly due to the tax credit.
• Hopefully this level of demand is sustainable over the next several months to help decrease the amount of inventory.
• I predict that the demand levels for April and May will be higher than the 5 year trend line, strictly due to the tax credit.

Pending Home Sales by Month (Intended Demand)

Click to Enlarge

• Last month I said that March’s pending number was important and one to watch. It didn’t disappoint. It made a big jump that made up for the big decrease in february.
• I believe April is going to be a huge month for Pendings. There are a lot buyers looking to cash in on the credit and April is the last month to do that.

Average Sale Price

Click to Enlarge

• As it was from September to November of 2009, the average sale price is once again flirting with record low numbers.
• 56% of activity in March was in the under $300k price range due to the tax credit.
• This number DOES NOT reflect home values in Chester County, only sale price.

Offers of Help

• What Is My Home Worth? Want to get a good idea of what your home is worth? Complete my Home Value Survey and find out what your Chester County Home is worth. . .
• What Is That Home Selling For? “Stop the car, honey … look at that house. I wonder what it’s selling for” Does this ever happen to you? Ever wonder what that house is selling for? Search and view all homes for sale in the Chester County area
• What do I need to know before I sell? Typically when a home does not sell, there is one reason…and it isn’t price. Please contact me to discuss what you need to know before you sell!

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

Share on Facebook

Technorati Tags: Chester County, Market Update, Monthly Update

Click to enlarge

Chris’s Assessment

First, let me point out something that is somewhat obvious… I have changed my charts a bit, hopefully for the better. I’d love your opinion! I changed them to make them simpler. Now what you are looking at is the line for the current year, last year, and then the 5 year trend line. Previously, there was too much going on. I hope this is better.

For Seller’s: I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: If you are planning on selling your home in the next 24 months, for whatever reason, NOW is the time to do it. With the tax credit in play, we are going to see more activity between now and the end of April as, I believe, we will see in a long time. “Don’t worry about it, the government will extend the tax credit. . . .  right?” Highly doubtful. For many reasons. Even without the tax credit, the chart showing the average sale price shows that between March and July is when you will get the highest price for your home. Even the pending chart proves this as the majority of the activity in the market is done between March and July.

Is now the time to sell? I talk with home owners on a daily basis who are asking this specific question. A general rule to follow when determining if now is a good time to sell:

1. Move-up: if you are selling a home and looking to ‘move-up’ or buy a more expensive home, the very best time to do this is when the market is down (like now)
2. Move-down: if you are selling a home and looking to ‘move-down’ or buy a less expensive home, the very best time to do this is when the market is hot (not now)

Need to sell? We love helping homeowners in the Chester County area prepare to sell their home. Contact us now to get our list of the 5 most common ways that Home Seller’s leave money on the table. We’d be happy to help you get the most for your home.

For BUYERS: It’s simple, I’ll say it again:

• Home prices are low
• Interest rates remain low
• you get $8000 for buying a home as a first time buyer, or $6500 if you currently own a home.

Right now, as a buyer, your purchasing power is at a high point. If you have some cash set aside and you qualify for a good mortgage, then you have the power to buy. That puts you in a VERY good position. I highly recommend you take steps to become a home owner. If that is you, please contact me, as I can help you put together a plan to get there.

Active Listings (Supply)

Click to Enlarge

• Seasonally, the increase in supply is fully expected
• It is at a significantly higher increase than usual and over last year.
• The rate at which it is increasing is a bit concerning. What will be very telling is if the rate of increase continues.
• If demand were keeping up with supply, this would be a good sign, but it is not. Not a great sign.

Sales Closed by Month (Demand)

Click to Enlarge

• Demand is down, and I don’t take that as a good sign. I thought initially maybe it was due to all the snow, and that could be, but these are homes that went pending 40 – 60 days before. The snow wasn’t in effe then.
• Last year at this time the demand had increased over January, and the fact that february’s number is going against the trend is not a good sign.
• Next months pending number will be a very telling sign as it sets the stage for the three best months in real estate sales in Chester County

Pending Homes Sales by Month (Intended Demand)

Click to Enlarge

• Again, another number that is bucking the trend and it’s not a great sign. Unlike the previous chart, this WAS effected by the snow, as there were several weekends that kept people inside.
• As said, the pending numbers for March will be very important. Seasonally, those numbers jump way up. Let’s see what happens. . .

Average Sale Price

Click to Enlarge

• One “happy fact” from this month is the fact that the average sale price is right in line with the 5 year trend (bright red line).
• This is mostly due to the fact that higher end/priced homes have been moving the last couple of months, and the first time home buyer market has cooled of, which has pushed that average back up.
• Due to the “Tax Credit Effect” we will probably see that average sales price drop over the next several months. This is not an indication of value, just sale price.

Offers of Help

• What Is My Home Worth? Want to get a good idea of what your home is worth? Complete my Home Value Survey and find out what your Chester County Home is worth. . .
• What Is That Home Selling For? “Stop the car, honey … look at that house. I wonder what it’s selling for” Does this ever happen to you? Ever wonder what that house is selling for? Search and view all homes for sale in the Chester County area
• What do I need to know before I sell? Typically when a home does not sell, there is one reason…and it isn’t price. Please contact me to discuss what you need to know before you sell!

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

Share on Facebook

Technorati Tags: Chester County, Market Update, Monthly Update

Get all the details by contacting Chris: 484.995.9318 or via the web.

Share on Facebook

Technorati Tags: 19320, Chester County, Home For Sale, Townhome, Video Tour

Statistics by School Districts

Chris’s Assessment:

SELLERS: As noted last month, the inventory has taken a dramatic dive due to the tax credit. This means there is less competition. We are about to enter into the spring market, so inventory will begin to increase again. But, the extended/expanded tax credit will be pushing people to look for homes earlier than what is typical. So there is a great opportunity there for the right sellers. You can grab this anxious market and get a decent price for your home, if it is a “First time home buyer” home, which is typically $300k or less. There is no crystal ball, but with the tax credit plus fantastic rates, I believe that if you are considering selling your home in the next 24 months, NOW is the time to do it. The conditions may not be this good for a couple of years.

Is it a good time to sell? I talk with home owners on a daily basis who are asking this specific question. A general rule to follow when determining if now is a good time to sell:

1. Move-up: if you are selling a home and looking to ‘move-up’ or buy a more expensive home, the very best time to do this is when the market is down (like now)
2. Move-down: if you are selling a home and looking to ‘move-down’ or buy a less expensive home, the very best time to do this is when the market is hot (not now)

BUYERS: It’s simple:

• Home prices are low
• interest rates remain low
• you get $8000 for buying a home as a first time buyer, or $6500 if you currently own a home.

Right now, as a buyer, your purchasing power is at a high point. If you have some cash set aside and you qualify for a good mortgage, then you have the power to buy. That puts you in a VERY good position. I highly recommend you take steps to become a home owner. If that is you, please contact me, as I can help you put together a plan to get there.

Active Listings (Supply)

Seasonally we are at a low point for inventory levels. When you look at the graph, one thing that I notice is that Supply is at a lower level for the month of January than it has been for three years. That’s a very good sign. Come June we will have a much better idea of whether the inventory will stay low or not, and that depends on what the demand is.

Sales Closed by Month (Demand)

Just as with supply, we are at a seasonally low point for demand. The next couple of months will be very telling of where the market is and is going. I have personally seen a tremendous amount of interest and activity in real estate. More than this time last year. I believe this Spring market is going to see a lot of activity.

Average Sold Price

After seeing the Average Sold Price (ASP) take a nose dive in the fall of 2009, due to the heavy activity under $300,000, we are seeing the ASP start to creep back up. January started out 14% up from the January 2009. That is another positive sign for a market recovery.

Sold To List Price Ratio (SLPR)

The SLPR still seems to be indicating that the market is going to stay down. But I generally think that the homes that sold in January were put under contract in November/December. What was going on in those months? For the most part buyers that might have missed the tax credit and were trying to get a deal. It may have also been home owners that were getting desperate to sell and were willing to take less for their homes. There is no way to tell for sure. I would be generally surprised if the SLPR stays in the low nineties over the next several months. If it moves to the mid nineties, then that would be a great indicator of the market leveling out.

Offers of Help

• What Is My Home Worth? Want to get a good idea of what your home is worth? Complete my Home Value Survey and find out what your Chester County Home is worth. . .
• What Is That Home Selling For? “Stop the car, honey … look at that house. I wonder what it’s selling for” Does this ever happen to you? Ever wonder what that house is selling for? Search and view all homes for sale in the Chester County area
• What do I need to know before I sell? Typically when a home does not sell, there is one reason…and it isn’t price. Please contact me to discuss what you need to know before you sell!

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

Share on Facebook

Technorati Tags: Chester County, Market Update, Monthly Update