National Real Estate Outlook for January 2010
December closed out the year with further indications of a budding recovery, illustrating we’ve come far from the pessimistic outlook this time last year. Soft home prices, affordable financing conditions as well as the government’s tax break targeted at the housing market have contributed to providing the much needed boost to the housing market. Solid gains in home sale activity helps to pare down inventory to a healthier level, which in turn will likely bring more stability to home prices.
The most recent Federal Reserve meeting indicated a more positive outlook about our economic condition as they pointed to plans to reel in emergency programs. Mortgage rates, which have hovered around 5 percent for most of 2009, are starting to climb again. Economists expect these unprecedented rates to go back up as Fed’s program to purchase mortgage-backed securities expires in March and private investors are demanding higher returns.
According to Nar 2009 President Charles McMillan, “Even with price declines in recent years, the typical home seller saw their equity increase 27 percent.” NAR’s most recent Home Buyers and Sellers survey reported that 87 percent of survey respondents consider their home a good investment, and more than half see it as a better investment than stocks. This indicates that Americans still see homeownership as a source of steady long-term wealth accumulation.
Employment will continue to be closely watched and steps on the road to recovery will likely continue to come one-by-one. Although concerns remain, many experts are hopeful of a brighter year in 2010.
The Housing Market
Existing Home Sales – Up 44% from last year
Existing home sales surged a record-breaking 44 percent from a year ago, the highest annual gain since NAR started tracking the data in 1999. The strong gain can be attributed to first-time buyers who accounted for 51 percent of all home sales, the highest on record dating back to 1981, as they rushed to beat the deadline for the first-time buyer tax credit that was due to expire November 30. The previous high was 44 percent in 1991. Sales activity is at the highest level since February 2007 when it reached 6.55 million.
Median Home Price – Very favorable
Low home prices continue to add the extra boost to home sales. Existing-home price was $172,600 in November, 5 percent higher from its low in January. While still 4.3 percent down from a year ago, it is the smallest decline in two years. Distressed properties, which accounted for 33 percent of all transactions in November, continue to hold down the median home price, as they typically sell for 15 to 20 percent less than traditional homes.
Inventory – Lowest level in almost 3 years
The supply of homes is now at the lowest level in almost three years. The supply of existing homes for sale at the end of November declined 1.3 percent to 3.52 million, representing a 6.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a seven-month supply in October. Generally, a six-month supply is considered balanced. Compared to a year ago, there are now 15 percent fewer homes on the market.
Mortgage Rates – Inching Up
Mortgage rates have begun to inch back up as government support runs its course and interest rates rise. On December 24, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 5.05 percent, the first time it has gone above 5 percent since the end of October. According to Amy Crews Cutts, deputy chief economist at Freddie Mac, “Extraordinary resources have been put into keeping the rates down and supporting the mortgage market, and it’s hard to imagine that the rates can go much lower than they are.”
Affordability – Best since 1970s
Affordability continues to be at a record level thanks to unprecedented interest rates, low home prices, as well as the first-time buyer tax credit. So far this year, the home price-to-income ratio has fallen well below the historical average of 25 percent. The ratio now stands at 15 percent.
Sources: National Association of Realtors, Freddie Mac
