Chester County Real Estate Statistics: March 2010
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Chris’s Assessment
March ended up being fairly predictable. I had said in last month that the Tax Credit was going to have an affect on sales and it certainly is. If you look at the “DEMAND” chart, you can see that the number of closed sales are up around the 5 year trend line, not last years low numbers. That’s good and predictable. In fact 56% of the closed sales in March were in the “First time home buyers” market of $300k or under. In fact 60% of those sales were in the $200k-$300k price range, and that is why the average sale price is very low again.
Another positive and predictable sign is the PENDING sales or what I call “intended demand”. In February that number was lower than 2009, but we also had a TON of snow, which can arguably be said to have affected that number. That number is back up above 2009 levels. I expect and predict that the Pendings for April will be even higher due to the tax credit. One sign that could be negative, at least for sellers, is that the supply is on track to be at record high levels again. When supply is high and demand is not meeting that supply, prices will come down. Economics 101.
I actually feel the prices are still a bit on the high side and do need to come down. That is why I am also counting the days until the tax credit expires. And no, there is absolutely no news or rumors of it being extended. So, for-real for-real, if you want and can take advantage of it, you better get your butt in gear and call me. So what does all this mean? Let’s find out. . .
For Seller’s: At this point, if you are looking to sell your home, you have all but missed the window of opportunity. If you call me today, and I mean TODAY, we could get you up and running to see if we can get you on the “Tax credit wave”. We have only 3 weekends left before the tax credit, as we know it, is gone. That isn’t much time. In my opinion, your home is worth more now for the next three weeks than it could be for the next 18 – 24 months. So if you need to sell or are considering a move in the next 18 – 24 months, we need to act now.
Need to sell? We love helping homeowners in the Chester County area prepare to sell their home. Contact us now to get our list of the 5 most common ways that Home Seller’s leave money on the table. We’d be happy to help you get the most for your home.
For Buyer’s: You only have 3 more weeks left to take advantage of the $8000 tax credit. If this is important to you then you need to act now. In addition, mortgage rates have been inching up. At the last update, rates were around 4.875% for a 30 yr conventional loan. Now they are at 5.25% and climbing. Every 0.5% increase will increase your monthly payment by about $50. There is no telling where they will be at the end of this year, but it is safe to say not as low as they are now.
Right now, as a buyer, your purchasing power is at a high point. If you have some cash set aside and you qualify for a good mortgage, then you have the power to buy. That puts you in a VERY good position. I highly recommend you take steps to become a home owner. If that is you, please contact me, as I can help you put together a plan to get there.
Active Listings (Supply)
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- As predicted, supply is on the rise.
- Demand has increased which is good
- It would be better if the increase in supply were to ease off a bit creating less inventory and therefore a more centrist market.
- Next month will probably follow a similar pattern by increasing. I’d like to see it not increase as much as last year and have the tax credit eat into a bunch of that supply.
Sales Closed By Month (Demand)
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- Big increase in March in closed sales. It appears as though the good weather brought out all those deterred by the snow.
- The increase is bigger than seasonally expected, I believe, clearly due to the tax credit.
- Hopefully this level of demand is sustainable over the next several months to help decrease the amount of inventory.
- I predict that the demand levels for April and May will be higher than the 5 year trend line, strictly due to the tax credit.
Pending Home Sales by Month (Intended Demand)
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- Last month I said that March’s pending number was important and one to watch. It didn’t disappoint. It made a big jump that made up for the big decrease in february.
- I believe April is going to be a huge month for Pendings. There are a lot buyers looking to cash in on the credit and April is the last month to do that.
Average Sale Price
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- As it was from September to November of 2009, the average sale price is once again flirting with record low numbers.
- 56% of activity in March was in the under $300k price range due to the tax credit.
- This number DOES NOT reflect home values in Chester County, only sale price.
Offers of Help
- What Is My Home Worth? Want to get a good idea of what your home is worth? Complete my Home Value Survey and find out what your Chester County Home is worth. . .
- What Is That Home Selling For? “Stop the car, honey … look at that house. I wonder what it’s selling for” Does this ever happen to you? Ever wonder what that house is selling for? Search and view all homes for sale in the Chester County area
- What do I need to know before I sell? Typically when a home does not sell, there is one reason…and it isn’t price. Please contact me to discuss what you need to know before you sell!
BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!
