Chester County Real Estate Statistics for September 2009
Note to readers: I post my stats later than other real estate companies and agents because I want the most accurate numbers available…and this makes them worth waiting for! Other agents simply copy and paste graphs that they get from other sources and offer no opinions to the marketplace conditions. I track data in house and compare the market on a whole to what I produce internally in order to produce an opinion of the data and give my thoughts of what the local market is experiencing from my view as a top Chester County Real Estate Agent.
Market Statistic Graphics for September 2009
Overall Market Summary Report
| Area | # Of Sales | % Change Year |
Volume in $ | % Change Year |
Average SOLD Price | % Change Year |
DOM | % Change Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downingtown | 72 | +41% | $22.8 Million | +28.8% | $317,900 | -8% | 75 | +10% |
| West Chester | 88 | -3.3% | $30.1 Million | -13.3% | $342,086 | -10.5% | 77 | +8.4% |
| Great Valley | 19 | -24% | $12.1 Million | +6.1% | $639,710 | +29% | 73 | -4% |
| Coatesville | 55 | +10% | $11.4 Million | +2% | $208,866 | -7% | 90 | +9.7% |
| Octorara | 9 | +12% | $1.9 Million | +28% | $210,000 | +12% | 127 | +24% |
| Chester County | 411 | +1.2% | $133 Million | -7% | $323,000 | -9.3% | 92 | +19% |
Chris’s Assessment
Sellers: The supply of homes available (Active Listings) is in the midst of a seasonal decline right now. This means that if you are selling your home you will have less competition. Bad news is that the demand is also declining. Luckily these two facts have a canceling effect and might only cause it to take longer to sell your home. When supply and demand is evenly matched, stats tend to stay even as well. But this does mean that you, as a seller, are STILL in a “Price war and beauty contest”. What does this mean?
If you want to sell your home and beat your competition, you MUST be a better value, which usually means a better price, and your home must present better than your competition. Home buyers are going to look at all of your competition and if the price and value are better and the home presents better, you are basically helping your competition sell their home.
The last time that prices were consistently in the $330,000 price range was back in 2005, so it is safe to say that the market has taken steps backwards by about 3 -4 years. That means that if you want to sell your home, but you bought during or after 2005, you will most likely be selling for a loss. This all underscores the need to have a real estate expert on your side, making sure you take the RIGHT steps in this difficult market. To find out what your home is worth today and how to get it sold quickly in this market, please contact me.
Buyers: Is it time to get off the fence and buy a home? No one can answer that question with 100% assurance, but you. Most buyers want to know if the market has hit bottom yet or not. Truth is, no one can tell you that for sure. The best we can do is to look at history and market statistics and make the best guess that we can. My firm assessment is that it is too early to tell. What this means to you as a (potential) buyer is that you need expert advice more than ever. You can schedule an appointment with me and we can go over some key area’s that will help you personally determine if now is the right time for you to jump into home ownership. More than 20 of my clients have done so and decided it is. Contact me to schedule an appointment.
First Time Home Buyers: Time is VERY short for you to take advantage of the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit. You MUST close by Monday, November 30th, and with settlement time frames averaging a minimum of 45 days, that means that if you do not have a home under contract by the middle of October, you will most likely miss it.
Many have asked me if the Credit will be extended and as I said above, I do not have a crystal ball and I cannot tell the future. Fact is that Congress has not extended it yet. But, they have introduced a bill – H.R. 2801 – which would expand and extend it. Read all the details about the bill in an post of mine last month.
Closed Sales (DEMAND)
Closed sales are following the seasonal decline, as predicted. Here are some facts to note:
- May saw a steeper spike in activity than the average month and the following decline has been slightly less dramatic.
- This may mean that the seasonal slump may continue following this curve, which would be good news.
- I have noticed a spike of activity in September, which may help the last quarter of this year to be a positive one.
Active Listings (Supply)
The number of active listings, or the supply available in this market, has been tracking just under what the supply was in the previous year. This is a positive sign. Unfortunately, the demand was also down for the first half of the year. It wasn’t until July and August that the demand has risen to the equal levels with 2008. If demand continues to stay higher through the rest of the year, and the supply remain lower than the previous year, this could be a sign that the market is flattening out. But, it is still too early to tell. Here are some facts to note:
- Supply for the first half of the year was trending under the previous year.
- In July and August the supply has risen to 2008 levels
- A positive sign would be for the supply to fall below 2008 levels for the rest of this year and for the demand to be higher. We can only wait and see.
Average Sold Price
This graph is effected by the first two of Supply and Demand. When supply is lower and demand is higher, prices go up. When demand is low and supply is high, prices go down. Economics 101. Because the demand the first half of the year was low we can see that the prices were tracking well under the 2008 levels. June, July and August saw increased level of demand, therefore the prices went up. Here are some facts to note:
- Prices are at the lowest levels in the last 5 years. Great news for buyers, not so great for sellers
- Prices, on average, are down almost 10% over 2008
- Prices from August to September saw a fairly sharp decline. I don’t know the exact reason for this at the moment, but I am going to look into it.
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Conclusion:
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