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Category Archive for: ‘National’

Home / National

National Update – Pending Home Sales Decline in January Comments Off

Here is a great update from the National Association of Realtors. Some highlights include:

  • There is an elevated level of “Shadow Inventory” looming over the market. Shadow Inventory are foreclosed homes that banks are currently holding and are not on the market.
  • Existing home sales – 5.36 million nationally – were slightly higher from forecasted levels
  • If they stay on that pace then home sales could increase 8% over 2010
  • The fundamentals of a recovering real estate market are: Job growth, housing affordability and rising rent. Keep an eye on them.

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Technorati Tags: NAR update, video

Posted on: 03-3-2011
Posted in: Market Update, National, Videos

National Foreclosure Moratorium Comments Off

The amount of foreclosure properties and how long it takes to get them into the hands of responsible home buyers is a huge issue facing the recovery of the housing market and overall economy. Last week Bank of American announced it would stop the foreclosures in order to get their paperwork problems worked out. This led to other banks taking similar action. In gaining a better understanding of this issue and how it may affect our market here in Chester County, we wanted to share a few articles we found.

The first one is written by Jeff Corbett of TheXBroker.com. He writes:

This situation is really about A. The process of paperwork, specifically establishing proper chain of title to property, and B. Having a human being actually review documents they represented they have through notarization.

In regards to A. it is vital to establish a clear chain of title when a property changes hands to insure the claims against it (in this case a mortgage evidenced by a promissory note) are properly released or transferred.  If a clear chain of title cannot be established (or is broken) claims may be rendered void, or in the alternative a property may seem to have a clear title when in fact someone has a legitimate claim against it.

In regards to B… At the same time, there has been such a crush of new foreclosures entering the system that banks were essentially having notaries rubber stamping foreclosure files as fast as they could without reviewing the files to insure they contained the actual documents and figures they were supposed to.  One lender was using 7 or 8 notaries to notarize over 18000 files per month, obviously they couldn’t be thoughtfully reviewing that many files.

The second article is written by Ruth Ravve from Fox News who points out that there are as many as 120,000 new foreclosures every month. That’s huge. She writes in her article entitled “Foreclosure mess deepens…” :

Charles Brown of CB3 Financial says that instead of selling foreclosed homes, banks have been hanging onto them, waiting for the economy to improve. “These banks that have all this pent-up inventory will unleash it on the market, as soon as they see a minor uptick in real estate prices,” Brown said, which will, in turn, reduce housing prices even further.

Experts agree that we have not hit rock bottom yet. People are still losing their jobs. Homes are going into foreclosure at a rate of 120,000 a month. Many who feared foreclosure in their future say they tried to work with the banks for “loan modification” — but they “were denied or given the runaround,” Rep. Mike Quigley of Illinois said. The banks weren’t working with people so they made the problem worse. “Servicers are famous for delay tactics…like claiming the fax machine was out of paper,” he said.

If you come across any other good articles on this topic, please leave a comment with a link.

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Technorati Tags: Foreclosure, National Market

Posted on: 10-15-2010
Posted in: Market Update, National

Another Take on how “Effective” the Home Buyer Tax Credit was. .. Comments Off

Economist Tom Lawler nailed it right on the head, at least in my eyes. In his recent article “Existing Home Sales: “Consensus” vs. Likely” on the website CalculatedRiskBlog.com said the following, which we 100% agree with:

So… what did we learn from the home buyer tax credit? (1) “if you pay them, they will come”; (2) if there is a deadline, they will rush to meet the deadline; and (3) when the deadline is over, sales will fall WAY below trend!

Some folks still like the tax credit, because (a) it helped “stabilize” home prices (short term it does appear to have); (b) it would help reduce excess inventories (for new home sales it did, but existing inventories have kept increasing); and (c) it would “generate interest” in the housing sector. On the latter score, the stabilization of home prices and reports of earlier strong sales DID appear to generate interest in housing – but mainly from previously “discouraged” sellers who decided to put their homes on the market (in many cases again) – which appears to be the major reason why active listings have INCREASED despite the tax-credit “goose” to sales!

You can read his entire commentary/article here.

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Technorati Tags: home buyer tax credit, national economy

Posted on: 10-13-2010
Posted in: Market Update, National

National Existing Home Sales Up in August…. Comments Off

If you are not familiar with http://www.calculatedriskblog.com and like to keep up on the economy, then get familiar. This site always has great updates on the latest news and issues effecting the economy. A recent article focused on the sales numbers that NAR put out for August of this year. They were very similar in nature to what we have here in Chester County. Here are a few examples:

  • National sales were up about 7.6% from July, Chester County was up 12%.
  • This was still down 19% from August 2009, Chester County was down 22%
  • National inventory decreased slightly from July to 3.98 Million homes for sale
  • Chester County saw a slight decrease as well, though very slight.
  • Most troubling is the months of supply. July was 12.5 months, while august decreased to about 11.6. This is extremely high.

This author is in agreement with us that because the amount of inventory is so high and demand is low, prices have one way to go and that is down. Here are a few of the charts included in the original article which can be read here.

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Technorati Tags: existing home sales, National Market

Posted on: 10-12-2010
Posted in: Market Update, National

Where are the economy and housing headed? Comments Off

Here are a couple excerpts from another article from RealTrends. The amount of “Shadow inventory” (4 million homes!!!) really concerns us and the idea that we may be heading for a housing “shortage” in 5 years is a very interesting idea…

The Housing Renaissance is an annual meeting of 50 of the nation’s top housing officials from senior banking officials, current and former housing policy analysts, leaders from HUD and FHA along with nationally recognized economists and real estate industry leaders. This year’s meeting (which we were fortunate to attend) was among the most enlightening since its founding four years ago.

That shadow inventory isn’t going to stay out of the sun much longer;
According to senior bankers and housing officials the ‘shadow’ inventory will be released to the market starting later this year and could be as many as 4 million strong. And while they will likely be released over a period of time it will still impact the market in several states;

Gifted down payment programs were and are the bain of FHA;According to officials who were with FHA at the time, loans where there’s a “gifted” down payment by the seller or builder, had and will continue to have delinquency rates of 3-4 times those of other FHA insured loans. Despite pleadings from FHA leadership, politicians refused to allow FHA to stop accepting these loans;

The housing market not only needs jobs but a resumption of growth in households:
While the focus is on job growth (where it primarily should be) household growth is also anemic. While most forecasters call for household growth of 1.4 to 1.5 percent per year for the next ten years, currently that number is less than 0.5 percent. Until that picks up, home sales growth cannot have a sustainable recovery;

We may well be headed straight for a housing ‘shortage’ in the next 4-5 years;

According to senior officials with the homebuilders, the infrastructure that supports homebuilders is in tatters and huge numbers of projects have been stopped, others cannot get financing. There have been large scale layoffs among critical parts of the supply chain that supports homebuilding. Given that a project takes 3-5 years to get to the point where a ‘spade’ is stuck in the dirt, at some point demand will outstrip supply as the economy recovers.

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Technorati Tags: Economy, Forecast, National Market

Posted on: 10-6-2010
Posted in: Market Update, National

National Housing Market Report – August 2010 1

This article comes from Real Trends, a company that specializes in analyzing the national real estate markets.  This article outlines what we have been saying on this site for months now. What’s interesting is that the national average sale price has risen by as much as 11% in some areas. Again, this is something that we found here in Chester County and have commented on it. We feel the reasons for this include the fact that “move-up” seller/buyers took advantage of getting the most money for their home during the tax credit and have bought larger homes. In addition, the interest rates have had an effect.  It’s just great to see that we are, indeed, right on with our perspective on the market.

Click to Enlarge

“In July, housing sales declined substantially as the benefit from the housing tax credits expired. The July 2010 results were below unit sales for any July in the last four years. It is apparent that the tax credits did boost housing sales substantially by moving up sales from the second half of 2010 into the first half.
Housing unit sales for July 2010 were down nationally 20.4 percent compared to July 2009 and down 28.2% from July 2007. Every region reported unit declines led by the Midwest where sales were down 27.4 percent from July 2009 to July 2010. The West had the best results with sales down only 16.8 percent for the same time period.
Prices held up fairly well with the national average price up 6.1 percent in July 2010 compared to July 2009. Every region had an increase in the average price. The Northeast again led the way with the average price up 11.4 percent in July 2010 versus July 2009. The Midwest had the lowest increase in average price at 2.0 percent comparing July 2010 versus 2009.
“The market is reacting as most expected given the decline of written business in virtually every market in the country in May and June 2010”, said Steve Murray, Editor of the REAL Trends Housing Market Report. “Many housing forecasters assumed that the expiration of the tax credits in April would have a negative impact on housing sales for the remainder of the year.
The July results confirmed that with no more tax favored treatment for housing purchases and with the continuation of high unemployment, the housing market would retreat.”
“It is encouraging that prices continued to rise even though the increases from July 2009 to July 2010 were some of the lowest in the last six months. It is also encouraging that anecdotal reports from brokerage firms from across the country indicate that most of the decrease took place in May and that the levels of written business for both June and July were level with those in May.”


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Technorati Tags: National Statistics

Posted on: 10-6-2010
Posted in: Market Update, National

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