Dare I Even Say The Words?!?!

For the last couple of months, the Chester County real estate market has been insane. So insane that… dare I even say it? It’s actually a “Seller’s” market right now! There… I got the words out. I know it’s hard to believe but, being a “man on the ground” in the thick of the action, I can attest that it is true. When 80%+ of the offers you are either writing for Buyer Clients or receiving for Seller Clients are multiple offer situations, it makes you start to question what’s going one.  After that, all you have to do is look at the stats from the last few months and the articles that have been popping up. Let’s look at the facts:

Demand: Closed sales in April are up a whopping 35% over April of 2011. That’s a big number. Overall, sales in 2012 are outpacing 2011 sales by about 18%. This means that we are on track to have the best year in real estate sales in the last 5 years, since 2007 to be exact. That is also the last time we had a “Seller’s Market”.

Supply: Supply of homes for sale is down about 8% from 3900 homes to 3600 homes available this year. So not only are their more buyers in the hunt for a new home but there are less homes to choose from. When demand is up and supply is down, that is generally a good sign.

List to Sale Price Ratio: This number compares what a home owner was asking to get for the house, compared to what they actually sold it for. Last month, April 2012, the ratio was 92.9% of asking. The last time we saw that stat was when the tax incentive was in place, but THIS TIME it is not an artificial number, the market is producing it all on it’s own, which is great. Another great sign that things are turning around, or a least, found the bottom.

Pending Sales: The Pending sales we track run about month behind, so we have the numbers for March. Pending Sales in March were up 41% year over year. Those numbers will effect the May sold/Demand numbers. So we are betting on May being a truly amazing month for sold homes

All of these numbers, plus our experience in the field clearly point to a “seller’s market” experience. This is what we are telling our clients right now. If they are buyers, prepare for multiple offers and prepare to move FAST. The advice to seller’s is still the same – Price it right and you will sell.

In addition, there are many articles that are giving facts and figures for the housing market finding it’s “bottom”. Such as these two:

- Calculated Risk, Summary for week of April 27th

- Calculated Risk: The long Bottom

In the end, it is still a great time to do a real estate transactions. Prices are not going up yet and interest rates are still historically low. But a shift is happening and if you are going to enter the waters, it’s best to have an expert by your side.

DEMAND	SUPPLY	PENDING
AVG SOLD PRICE	LIST TO SALE PRICE RATIO	National Home Prices
Affordability Index	1989 vs 2011	Four Steps to Recovery

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Have You Heard the News?

If you haven’t heard, the local, Chester County real estate market is truely amazing. Beginning in January, the numbers have been above the numbers from 2011. It’s been so active that many listings are getting multiples offers. The market hasn’t really seen this type of market since 2005 give or take. On one hand it’s great, on the other, it’s frustrating for buyers because properties are being sold very quick.

While this is great news, we don’t believe that this will be sustained for a long time, our guess is July, maybe August. This stems from the fact that we believe there has been a large amount of pent up market movement since 2008/2009. It’s like a dam holding back the flood waters and in this case, so many people have been waiting to make a move that the feel it’s the best/right time to do so.  And most of the time, we agree.

As we explained last month, one major key to recovery will be unemployment. The good news is that since the “end of the recession” in 2009, job openings have increased 46%, and they show a solid upward trend since then. However, 2008 dug a pretty deep hole that we are far from out of, as this graph shows.

FORECLOSURES are also another, related factor. The good news is that the “Shadow Inventory” or the number of homes that banks own as a result of foreclosure has declined to about 3.9 million homes from it’s height of 5.1 million a few years ago. The bad news is that there is a very good chance that starting July 1st, the banks will begin to release those homes for sale at a much faster rate. This will be bad news for anyone looking to sell. Our advice to our clients is that they price their homes appropriately now, get it sold now, because the release will cause their value to most certainly decline.

Overall the numbers look really good right now – DEMAND is way up, Supply is down and confidence is up. We fully believe that we’ve reached the bottom, that prices are not going to make any further significant declines, barring any serious economic issues. However, we also don’t expect to see any serious appreciation for a handful of years, 4 or 5 maybe, with some saying as long as 8 years. Bottom line is that it is an amazing opportunity to buy and sell right now and we can give you the information you need to make that important decision.

Quick reminder that Tax appeal season is just about on us (Starting May 1st). If you are considering appealing or haven’t done so in the last 3 years, it’s worth looking into, we can help.  Just contact us.

Monthly  Numbers

DEMAND	SUPPLY	PENDING
AVERAGE SOLD PRICE	LIST TO SALE PRICE RATIO	National Home Prices
Affordability Index	1989 vs 2011	Four Steps to Recovery

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We didn’t start the fire. . .

But we are certainly going to ride the wave! Since teh beginning of January the market has been more active than we’ve seen in the last 3-4 years. February did not disappoint!  The number of homes sold are up 8% over Febrary 2011, and up 31% from the low of 2010! Pending sales in January (It’s too early to tell for February just yet) were up 16%. All very good signs.

In addition, the average sold price was up 8% from the same month last year. What this tells us, and we can confirm by experience is that the “Move up” buyer is a very hot segmant right now. A “move up” buyer is someone who is selling a smaller home to move to a bigger home, and there couldn’t be a better time to do it.  Those are all local numbers.
We are also seeing the First Time Home Buyer come back into the market. Back in 2010 when the last incentive expired, it pretty much stole about a year and a half worth of buyers from the future. Those who were thinking of buying in 2011 were coaxed to buy in 2010, taking advantage of the tax credit.

Nationally there are some very good signs too. Housing affordability is the most favorable that it’s been on record. Affordability is defined as the percent of mean family’s income required to make mortgage payments on a median-priced home. In 2011 it dropped to 13.6%.

To put this inperspective, this means that your mortgage payment was the same as it would have been back in 1989!!  Simply put, there has never been a better time, nor will there be, in our lifetime to buy a home.

Another impressive, telling national number is the home prices trend. Historically, Home prices have appreciated an average of 4% a year. If that trend were to be followed right now, the average price that a home would sell for would be $219k.  Due to the current down turn, the average price in 2011 was $166 or 24% below the 4% appreciation trend.  This tells you that more people should be buying homes right now. It’s time to get off the fence.

The key to getting the housing market to turn to the upside is employment or rather, unemployment.  That is the number that drives all other numbers. Gary Keller in his Vision Speech to more than 7,000 Real Estate agents last month laid out the vision of how he see’s the housing market recovering.  STEP 1 is to stabilize home prices. I believe we are seing that as I type this. STEP 2 is to stabilize the Banking system. Once home prices are stabilized , the banking system can be stabilized. STEP 3 is to create jobs. And STEP 4 is to stimulate the economy. The bottleneck in this process is going to be in creating jobs.
Gary Keller believes that job creation will come from one of two places: Either a new industry being created or it will come from demographics.  Here’s what that means – the number of jobs that need to be created over the next 3 years, every month is just staggering. The only industry that feasibly could lead us out of this fast of jobs is the energy sector. Unfortunately there isn’t enough investment and growth in that sector to place hope there. The other option is going to be demographics. What that means is the “Baby boomer” generation is done making their contribution. The next group of spenders, those who are about 45- 50 years old are about 8 – 9 years away from replacing the Baby boomers in spending.

In the end, what this means that with out the creation of a new industry creating massive amounts of jobs, the only place we have to look to help boost “the system” is about 8-9 years away.  This leads us to believe that we are going to see a very flat real estate market for the next 8-9 years.  Sure, there will be some micro appreciation, some local markets doing well, others not so well, but nationally speaking, it will not appreciate as we might expect.

We know it seems like we just made two contradicting statements. One one hand we said it’s an amazing time to buy and on the other we are saying that things aren’t going to get a whole lot better for a while.  That’s true.  However, most people stay in their homes for about 7 – 9 years.  Chester County is a VERY stable place to own a home, which will really help the market and it’s pretty much 100% certain that interest rates WILL NOT stay a the historical low they are at now. Inflation may take care of that later this year.

So for those who plan on staying in their home and not “flipping” it, it is still an amazing time to buy and take advantage of the tax advantages that owning real estate provides, plus building equity. Don’t forget, we believe we have seen the bottom or are pretty close to it.

All in all – it really is an amazing time to be involved in real estate, either as an agent or as a buyer or seller. If you have been thinking of making a move, we would love to speak with you and help you get a clear picture of reality – of the market, of opportunties exist for you and your situation, what threats there may be.  So don’t hesitate to call us now. We love helping those we call friends!!

Monthly Numbers:

DEMAND	SUPPLY	PENDING
AVERAGE SOLD PRICE	LIST TO SALE PRICE RATIO	National Home Prices
Affordability Index	1989 vs 2011	Four Steps to Recovery

What Does This Mean For ME?

IF YOU ARE SELLING OR THINKING OF SELLING:

Yes – it is still a difficult time to sell a home. However, our team continues to have great success getting homes sold. At the end of October  , we’ve sold 41 homes. In the end, you must have an exceptional agent by your side to help you get the information and perspective you need to make this critical decision. We’ve helped many clients do just that over the last year and a half. Call us today to let us know you need help.

IF YOU ARE BUYING A HOME OR THINKING ABOUT IT:

There continues to be amazing opportunities there for those who have all their “ducks in a row”. If you do not have a home to sell, that means knowing the process, having your financial options figured out and knowing, clearly, what you are looking for. If you have a home to sell, that adds that you have met with Caleb to know what the SELL side looks like and then meeting with Chris to clearly nail down the buy side. Interest rates are amazing, hovering around 4.25%.  So if you are thinking about buying, call us today to get that ball rolling.

NEXT STEPS:

• What Is My Home Worth? Want to get a good idea of what your home is worth? Complete my Home Value Survey and find out what your Chester County Home is worth. . .
• What Is That Home Worth? “Stop the car, honey … look at that house. I wonder what it’s selling for” Does this ever happen to you? Ever wonder what that house is selling for? Search and view all homes for sale in the Chester County area
• What do I need to know before I sell? Typically when a home does not sell, there is one reason…and it isn’t price. Please contact me to discuss what you need to know before you sell!

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

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January was a very predictable month. Supply was inline with historical numbers, as was demand and the list to sale price ratio.  The average sale price was not inline with historical numbers, as it was at about $318k, when we usually see it up around $370k. This is as sign that it seems that many lower end homes settled last month and those homes went under contract in November and December when the activity was very slow.

We can say that the “word on the street” is that the market activity has begin early. We have seen it in our business – lots of calls and inquiries on listings. So it seems that the Spring market has started early. Hopefully this is sustained and the increased interest and activity carries through the rest of the year. If it does, it will be a big step toward recovery.  This activity seems to be driven by a general restlessness – people just need to do something and can’t wait any longer, or feel this is their best opportunity.

That’s our take on January’s numbers, take a look for your self!

DEMAND	SUPPLY	PENDING
AVERAGE SOLD PRICE	LIST TO SALE PRICE RATIO

What Does This Mean For ME?

IF YOU ARE SELLING OR THINKING OF SELLING:

Yes – it is still a difficult time to sell a home. However, our team continues to have great success getting homes sold. At the end of October  , we’ve sold 41 homes. In the end, you must have an exceptional agent by your side to help you get the information and perspective you need to make this critical decision. We’ve helped many clients do just that over the last year and a half. Call us today to let us know you need help.

IF YOU ARE BUYING A HOME OR THINKING ABOUT IT:

There continues to be amazing opportunities there for those who have all their “ducks in a row”. If you do not have a home to sell, that means knowing the process, having your financial options figured out and knowing, clearly, what you are looking for. If you have a home to sell, that adds that you have met with Caleb to know what the SELL side looks like and then meeting with Chris to clearly nail down the buy side. Interest rates are amazing, hovering around 4.25%.  So if you are thinking about buying, call us today to get that ball rolling.

NEXT STEPS:

• What Is My Home Worth? Want to get a good idea of what your home is worth? Complete my Home Value Survey and find out what your Chester County Home is worth. . .
• What Is That Home Worth? “Stop the car, honey … look at that house. I wonder what it’s selling for” Does this ever happen to you? Ever wonder what that house is selling for? Search and view all homes for sale in the Chester County area
• What do I need to know before I sell? Typically when a home does not sell, there is one reason…and it isn’t price. Please contact me to discuss what you need to know before you sell!

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

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2011 is done. Over with. In the past.  The year was sort of like “medicine” in my opinion. During the Christmas weekend, my younger son (Chris speaking here) came down with Strep throat. In order to help with the pain & healing, he had to take several different medicines. This wasn’t easy, as he is only 3 years old and very strong willed. If he doesn’t like something or want to do it, he won’t. So trying to “Sell” him on taking medicine wasn’t easy. It tasted awful, but was very good for him.

That’s sort of how I look at 2011. It didn’t go down very well, but it’s a big step towards recovery.  I’ve read a lot of articles from “experts” and many are saying there are many signs that the national housing market is very near the bottom and close to recovery. Here are some of those points:

- From CalculatedRiskBlog.com:

• In 2011, construction employment added a few jobs, first since 2006
• Some say new home sales and housing starts may see an increase on 2012
• Wells fargo is predicting a 15% increase in sales of new construction, best year since 2008.
• Goldman sachs believes that housing starts have bottomed out
• Even with a 15% increase, it’s still the third worst year since the census Bureau started tracking new homes sales in 1963 (2009 and 2010 being the worst respectively )

- Bob Denk, senior economist at the National Association of Home Builders, to CNNMoney “Inventories of new homes are very low: There’s nothing on the shelf, so any increase in new home sales will translate directly into new housing starts. That means putting people back to work.”

- Tara-Nicholle Nelson of Inman News says “- Consumers will get “hopeless”, meaning they will realize that this is the new “normal” and start to take action on things they’ve put off. “(Read her full article)

- – Beginning of the end of the housing bust? Due to a rise in housing starts permits, this expert believes so.  (http://www.businessinsider.com)

All of this does give me some hope. I have believed and been predicting that 2012 will be somewhat similar to 2012. In fact, we still feel that, due to the “Distressed Property” inventory (Foreclosures and Short Sales) that home prices will continue to slide, possibly as much as 10%. However, I believe there will be an uptick in activity, in the number of homes sold. I believe that will be due to a combination of consumers getting to that point where they realize that things aren’t going to just magically turn around and start to get off the fence and just pent up needs.

With that long introduction, let’s look at the numbers for December 2011:

SUPPLY:
Supply is the lowest it’s been in a very long time.  In our opinion, this is a good sign. When supply is down and demand is up, it means good things. As we will mention, demand is not skyrocketing, but it isn’t dropping either. As we said the last few months, we feel this is due to many people getting “out of the game” because they are seeing reality and they can’t get the price they want for their home, so they are staying in the house for now.

DEMAND:
Demand, or the number of homes sold has been pretty steady, despite the seasonal trend that activity lightens up. We’ve personally seen quite a bit of interest in the last few weeks, so we feel that January is going to be an active one.

LIST TO SALE PRICE RATIO:
This is another positive sign. In December, homes that sold received about 91.5% of asking price. That’s more than seasonally expected and shows that prices are getting to where they should be. The next 6 months will be very telling. If this number can stay closer to 93% than 90%, this is a good sign.

DEMAND	SUPPLY	PENDING
AVERAGE SOLD PRICE	LIST TO SALE PRICE RATIO

What Does this mean for me?

IF YOU ARE SELLING OR THINKING OF SELLING:

Yes – it is still a difficult time to sell a home. However, our team continues to have great success getting homes sold. At the end of 2011   , we sold 48 homes. In the end, you must have an exceptional agent by your side to help you get the information and perspective you need to make this critical decision. We’ve helped many clients do just that over the last year and a half. Call us today to let us know you need help.

IF YOU ARE BUYING A HOME OR THINKING ABOUT IT:

There continues to be amazing opportunities there for those who have all their “ducks in a row”. If you do not have a home to sell, that means knowing the process, having your financial options figured out and knowing, clearly, what you are looking for. If you have a home to sell, that adds that you have met with Caleb to know what the SELL side looks like and then meeting with Chris to clearly nail down the buy side. Interest rates are amazing, hovering around 4.25%.  So if you are thinking about buying, call us today to get that ball rolling.

NEXT STEPS:

• What Is My Home Worth? Want to get a good idea of what your home is worth? Complete my Home Value Survey and find out what your Chester County Home is worth. . .
• What Is That Home Worth? “Stop the car, honey … look at that house. I wonder what it’s selling for” Does this ever happen to you? Ever wonder what that house is selling for? Search and view all homes for sale in the Chester County area
• What do I need to know before I sell? Typically when a home does not sell, there is one reason…and it isn’t price. Please contact me to discuss what you need to know before you sell!

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pe

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“The ugly, straight up truth is that your home is worth more now, than it will be in for another 18-24 months”. That’s what many of our current and potential seller clients are hearing right now. The market has been good to the Chris & Caleb team, but in general, has continued to decline for the last 4 years, with only some decrease in speed to console those of us who care. At the moment, there are no signs, nothing on the horizon, that lead us to believe that a solid turn around will be happening in 2012. The best we can realistically hope for is for prices to stablize, however we don’t feel that will necessarily happen.

With that said, all is not doom and gloom and bad news. The interest rates are low – lower than they’ve been in 40 years – home prices are back below 2003- 2004 price levels (before the peak), which means homes are affordable again, and lenders are beginning to be a bit more reasonable in their lending.

Other good news is that Fannie’s REO inventory dropped another 11%, which is the 4th straight quarter that number fell. In addition, percentage of prime loans (72% of all loans) 30 days delinquent has decreased from 3.46% to 3.19% in Q2 2011, the lowest since early 2007. 60 Day delinquent loans decreased slightly to 1.30% from 1.37% last quarter. 90+ decreased to 3.5% from 3.61%. With that said, if we just looked at REO inventory, we might think that the situation is getting better pretty quickly. However there are a large number of properties in the “90 days delinquent” and “in foreclosure” buckets. So we aren’t out of the woods yet.

SUPPLY:
Supply continues below the 5 year trend line and down 9% from last year, the same month. As we speak to many current and want to be seller’s, we contribute this decrease strictly “market fatigue”. Many seller’s have given up selling their home as they chase the market down, never getting ahead of the falling sale prices. Now, if only demand would spike, there would be good hope for having hit the bottom of the market.

DEMAND:
Demand is holding steady, staying right above last year, but slightly below the 5 year trend. Based on our experience and speaking with many buyers and sellers, we feel the market will continue to stick slightly below the 5 year trend line. There just isn’t anything that shows that it will start to completely turn around yet.

LIST TO SALE RATIO:
It seems that the market may be trending to be a bit early than it has in the past. It is clearly seen with these numbers. It’s like the market is a month early. That means that seller’s should seriously consider putting their homes on the market a month early, in February, as we believe the “Spring market” will come a bit early this year. As for Buyer’s, get your ducks in a row, cause things might get hot quick.

DEMAND	SUPPLY	PENDING
AVERAGE SOLD PRICE	LIST TO SALE PRICE RATIO _

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Last month we entitled our monthly numbers review as “The New Normal”. We certainly believe that this is truly the case. So many tell us that they are going to wait until “the market gets better.” Depending on what exactly you mean by that, you could be waiting a very, very long time. Many experts are predicting that when the market does exhibit growth, it will be slow growth. At this point, at least locally, we are back to about 2003 numbers, give or take. 2006 was the peak and for the current market to traverse that same 3 years, in terms of value may take 10 years or more. So, if you are just “Waiting” for no good reason, we suggest you analyze those needs and see if it wouldn’t make sense to make a move now. Let’s take a look at what positive news there is out there right now…

SUPPLY:
Supply continues to fall, now putting the number of homes available for sale slightly below the 5 year average and about 8% off last years number, the same month. This is good news. As we will discuss, demand appears to be up and with supply trending down, this could be the remedy that we are looking for. The national news is also good as LPS Applied Analytics sites in this article on CalculatedRiskBlog.com, the delinquency rates for mortgages declined in September, in addition to the GDP rising 2.5%. These are all good signs for the real estate market. The two big factors holding the market back at this point is the overall economy/unemployment and Foreclosures. Experts predict it will be at least another few years before we see a significant reduction the overall inventory for the foreclosure supply, as stated in these two articles: “REO Sales may not peak until 2013″ and “Several more years with nearly 1m foreclosures per year”.

DEMAND:

While demand locally is still below the 5 year average, it is only down off that number by a measly 5% and it is up over last year by 10%. Additionally, NAR reports that pending sales are up, nationally, 6.45% over the same time last year, -  these are all positive signs.

LIST TO SALE RATIO:
Last month we noted that the average List To Sale Price ratio seemed to have leveled out. However, the amount of money that home-seller’s were getting compared to what they were asking took a decent dive, down to 89.6%, from 91.5% last month. This is fairly typical for the season. The market did the same thing last year, just a month later in the season. While this number is not concerning in and of itself, it will be if it stays depressed.

PENDING:
Pending Sales are tracking very similar to last years numbers, which is expected. Since the pending numbers run a month behind schedule and predicts about 2 months in advance, we believe November closed sales will be very similar to last year.

DEMAND	SUPPLY	PENDING
AVERAGE SOLD PRICE	LIST TO SALE PRICE RATIO

What Does this mean for me?

IF YOU ARE SELLING OR THINKING OF SELLING:

Yes – it is still a difficult time to sell a home. However, our team continues to have great success getting homes sold. At the end of October  , we’ve sold 41 homes. In the end, you must have an exceptional agent by your side to help you get the information and perspective you need to make this critical decision. We’ve helped many clients do just that over the last year and a half. Call us today to let us know you need help.

IF YOU ARE BUYING A HOME OR THINKING ABOUT IT:

There continues to be amazing opportunities there for those who have all their “ducks in a row”. If you do not have a home to sell, that means knowing the process, having your financial options figured out and knowing, clearly, what you are looking for. If you have a home to sell, that adds that you have met with Caleb to know what the SELL side looks like and then meeting with Chris to clearly nail down the buy side. Interest rates are amazing, hovering around 4.25%.  So if you are thinking about buying, call us today to get that ball rolling.

NEXT STEPS:

• What Is My Home Worth? Want to get a good idea of what your home is worth? Complete my Home Value Survey and find out what your Chester County Home is worth. . .
• What Is That Home Worth? “Stop the car, honey … look at that house. I wonder what it’s selling for” Does this ever happen to you? Ever wonder what that house is selling for? Search and view all homes for sale in the Chester County area
• What do I need to know before I sell? Typically when a home does not sell, there is one reason…and it isn’t price. Please contact me to discuss what you need to know before you sell!

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

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The “New Normal”

We’ve had numerous conversations answering the questions “How’s real estate”, “How’s business?” “How’s the market?”. We find our selves using the term “New Normal” quite a bit. What does “New Normal” mean? Pretty simple – What is going on right now is going to continue for a seemingly indefinite amount of time. In other words, what we are experiencing is “Normal”, hence the “new Normal”.  That’s not to say that things won’t get “better”, but it doesn’t look like things are going to make a dramatic turn around and it’s best to accept that fact and deal with reality and what the “New Normal” means.  With that said, there is some positive signs and figures that we are seeing…

Supply is coming down. This is not because of increased sales. Given our experience, it’s probably people getting sick of trying to sell ad they just can’t get the price they are looking for so they are putting off selling for a couple years.  No doubt, some may be going into foreclosure. On calculated risk they reported that foreclosure starts increased in August, however seriously delinquent mortgages (90+ days behind) have fallen down to 2008 levels.  In our minds, we see this as a positive signs that we are headed out of woods, however we aren’t there yet.

Demand is still down from the 5 year trend, however July and August saw an increase of the same period last year, and were near the 5 year trend levels. September is slightly below that line, but the gap between current sale levels and the 5 year average is closing. So for an intents and purposes it seems that demand is increasing, though slowly and supply is coming down. Those are positive signs.

Another positive sign is that the list to sale ratio seems to have stabilized in the last 4 months now. What we want to see is this number remain at least constant, if not increase slowly. This number should never ever be more than 97%. When we see that number we know that the market is getting a bit wonky.

Several news/market stories to note is that the U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced that construction spending during August 2011 increased around 2.1%. When investment money is being put out for construction, this is a positive sign that conditions are good. I already mentioned that seriously delinquent mortgages have dropped to 2008 levels, also another good sign.

DEMAND	SUPPLY	PENDING
AVERAGE SOLD PRICE	LIST TO SALE PRICE RATIO

What Does This Mean To Me?

Not to sound like a broken record, but it really is an amazing time to buy, which frankly, could offset a terrible time to sell if it all made sense.

IF YOU ARE SELLING OR THINKING OF SELLING:

Yes – it is still a difficult time to sell a home. However, our team continues to have great success getting homes sold. At the end of SEPTEMBER , we’ve sold 33 homes. In the end, you must have an exceptional agent by your side to help you get the information and perspective you need to make this critical decision. We’ve helped many clients do just that over the last year and a half. Call us today to let us know you need help.

IF YOU ARE BUYING A HOME OR THINKING ABOUT IT:

There continues to be amazing opportunities there for those who have all their “ducks in a row”. If you do not have a home to sell, that means knowing the process, having your financial options figured out and knowing, clearly, what you are looking for. If you have a home to sell, that adds that you have met with Caleb to know what the SELL side looks like and then meeting with Chris to clearly nail down the buy side. Interest rates are amazing, hovering around 4.25%.  So if you are thinking about buying, call us today to get that ball rolling.

NEXT STEPS:

• What Is My Home Worth? Want to get a good idea of what your home is worth? Complete my Home Value Survey and find out what your Chester County Home is worth. . .
• What Is That Home Worth? “Stop the car, honey … look at that house. I wonder what it’s selling for” Does this ever happen to you? Ever wonder what that house is selling for? Search and view all homes for sale in the Chester County area
• What do I need to know before I sell? Typically when a home does not sell, there is one reason…and it isn’t price. Please contact me to discuss what you need to know before you sell!

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

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August Was Good…

Both for our team and the county, August was a good month in real estate. We really want to give you some amazing news about great numbers coming through….   however, we also must report the truth and following that goal, we can’t. That’s not to say there aren’t bright spots, but. . .  well, read on and you will see….

Demand is up from last month, and up from this time last year by about 22% While that number looks good, we did have a dramatic rise in sold homes due to the tax credit and a dramatic drop as well for the same reason. This year the numbers have been much less dramatic, and it follows a seasonal trend.  Overall, it’s a healthy sign that the demand is up closer to the 5 year trend.

When looking at the pending sale numbers or upcoming demand, it is indicating waining demand for the rest of the year, which is typical. However, due to overall economic conditions, we see nothing to indicate that the demand will be better than last year. In fact, the numbers are indicating that demand will probably be about 5 – 10% less than last year.

Supply is down over last year by about 2.5%-3%. We call this seller fatigue – many homes are coming off the market because they figure they have passed the prime time of selling and are tired of being on the market. In July there were 257 withdrawn or Expired homes. In august there were 351. Combine that with 498 that sold and that’s a good chunk of homes that have come off the market.
The list to sale price ratio is hovering around 91%, which is where it has been the last 3 months or so. This could be a positive sign, but we aren’t quite convinced yet. We want to give a rosy outlook so badly, but the overall economic indicators just aren’t great.  One of the no “BS” outlets of information we follow is http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/.  Many of the articles there don’t give many positive indicators. In fact, in a recent update on the overall economy, while the author said that we aren’t quite in another recession they also said that there is no bright news when looking at the GDP and GDI among manufacturing and other important indicators. Combine that with the overall unemployment rate being around 9.1% , the trouble in Europe and no great hope coming from the government, it doesn’t lead us to believe there is a dramatic turn around in our near future.

DEMAND	SUPPLY	PENDING
AVERAGE SOLD PRICE	LIST TO SALE PRICE RATIO

What Does This Mean?

Not to sound like a broken record, but it really is an amazing time to buy, which frankly, could offset a terrible time to sell if it all made sense.

IF YOU ARE SELLING OR THINKING OF SELLING:

Yes – it is still a difficult time to sell a home. However, our team continues to have great success getting homes sold. At the end of AUGUST, we’ve sold 31 homes. In the end, you must have an exceptional agent by your side to help you get the information and perspective you need to make this critical decision. We’ve helped many clients do just that over the last year and a half. Call us today to let us know you need help.

IF YOU ARE BUYING A HOME OR THINKING ABOUT IT:

There continues to be amazing opportunities there for those who have all their “ducks in a row”. If you do not have a home to sell, that means knowing the process, having your financial options figured out and knowing, clearly, what you are looking for. If you have a home to sell, that adds that you have met with Caleb to know what the SELL side looks like and then meeting with Chris to clearly nail down the buy side. Interest rates have been sneaking up lately, going from 4.25% to 4.5%, even as high as 4.625% last week. So if you are thinking about buying, call us today to get that ball rolling.

NEXT STEPS:

• What Is My Home Worth? Want to get a good idea of what your home is worth? Complete my Home Value Survey and find out what your Chester County Home is worth. . .
• What Is That Home Worth? “Stop the car, honey … look at that house. I wonder what it’s selling for” Does this ever happen to you? Ever wonder what that house is selling for? Search and view all homes for sale in the Chester County area
• What do I need to know before I sell? Typically when a home does not sell, there is one reason…and it isn’t price. Please contact me to discuss what you need to know before you sell!

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

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Don’t buy the fear!

We talk to many people on a weekly basis about the real estate market. The cold hard truth about the market is that it is following the overall economy which is not great. There is still much fear and anxiety out there, especially when you mix in the credit rating drop and other factors… It’s just not fun. We want to encourage you to not buy into the fear but rather, look at the facts and be educated. Education will push out the fear and that is a much more healthy place to be.  There is a lot of opportunity right now, for those who can see it.  Let’s look at the numbers more closely. . .

CLOSED SALES (DEMAND):

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Closed sales are off 28% from the 5 year average and 7% from last year. That is significant, as last years closed sales in July were dramatically down, and this month is another 7% off. However, it is a seasonally expected decrease and we hope that next month follows the season and increases slightly.

PENDING SALES :

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As with closed sales, pending sales are off the 5 year trend by 25%, which was expected, and fairly close to last years July numbers. You will know that things are improving when the pendings and closed sales rise above last years, closer the the 5 year trend.

ACTIVE LISTINGS (SUPPLY):

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Some good news is that the number of active listings is seeing a slight decline. We have been expecting the supply to be firmly increasing until about October. Less supply will help relieve some downward pressure on prices. The question we are asking is – why is there less inventory? Is it because everyone is so down on the market and don’t want to even try? It certainly isn’t because many homes were bought up, we can see that in the sold activity.

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE:

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The average sold price continues to follow the 5 year trend.

LIST TO SALE PRICE RATIO:

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Another area of good news is that the list to sale price ratio is is trending upwards. This is good news because it means that, overall, seller’s are getting more money for their homes. In addition, the ratio did not drop like it did last year in July. This could mean that prices may be stabilizing, however, due to the decrease in overall activity, this is a small step in the overall market towards stabilization. But, we will take it!

What does this mean?

It’s an amazing time to buy a home, a possibly a bad  time to sell one if you bought it in the last 5 years. It’s also an amazing time to invest in real estate. The deals we are seeing out there are just amazing.

IF YOU ARE SELLING OR THINKING OF SELLING:

Yes – it is still a difficult time to sell a home. However, our team continues to have great success getting homes sold. At the end of July, we’ve sold around 25 homes. In the end, you must have an exceptional agent by your side to help you get the information and perspective you need to make this critical decision. We’ve helped many clients do just that over the last year and a half. Call us today to let us know you need help.

IF YOU ARE BUYING A HOME OR THINKING ABOUT IT:

There continues to be amazing opportunities there for those who have all their “ducks in a row”. If you do not have a home to sell, that means knowing the process, having your financial options figured out and knowing, clearly, what you are looking for. If you have a home to sell, that adds that you have met with Caleb to know what the SELL side looks like and then meeting with Chris to clearly nail down the buy side. Interest rates have been sneaking up lately, going from 4.25% to 4.5%, even as high as 4.625% last week. So if you are thinking about buying, call us today to get that ball rolling.

NEXT STEPS:

• What Is My Home Worth? Want to get a good idea of what your home is worth? Complete my Home Value Survey and find out what your Chester County Home is worth. . .
• What Is That Home Worth? “Stop the car, honey … look at that house. I wonder what it’s selling for” Does this ever happen to you? Ever wonder what that house is selling for? Search and view all homes for sale in the Chester County area
• What do I need to know before I sell? Typically when a home does not sell, there is one reason…and it isn’t price. Please contact me to discuss what you need to know before you sell!

BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!

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