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Here comes the flood!
The flood has started – the flood of inventory that is. For the last 4 months we have been predicting that the local market will be flooded with inventory – sellers who came off the market for the holiday, sellers who have been waiting, and a variety of others. This flood will create downward pressure on local home prices. Luckily, it’s not all bad news this month. Let’s take a look. . .
PENDINGS:
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Pending home sales in Chester County were down from last month which is not inline with the 5 year trend. As predicted the activity is looking like it will still be off, but some other numbers, as you will read in a minute, are indicating possible increase in overall demand. What this means is that it is an incredible time to buy real estate, GREAT for buyers, but not so good for sellers who are tight on equity.
CLOSED SALES (DEMAND):
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Closed home sales were slightly down from last month, but the good news is that it is not following the pattern of last year. This is a good overall sign. In fact NAR has said that existing home sales, nationally, were up over their prediction at 5.36 million. If it stays on this trend, we could see an increase in the number of sales of up to 8% over 2010. More demand is good.
ACTIVE LISTINGS (SUPPLY):
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The number of homes for sale in Chester County are following seasonal trends, but we believe next month we will see a very large increase in supply. We are already seeing it in our business as we have listed 7 homes in the last 3 weeks and have about 18 more that will be coming on in the next 4 weeks or so. This kind of flood of inventory will put downward pressure on prices unless an uptick in demand is seen.
AVERAGE SOLD PRICE:
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The average sold price took a dip last month which was a month earlier than it usually comes. This appears to be due to seller fatigue, the lack of demand and investors getting in.
LIST TO SALE PRICE RATIO:
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Last month was a miserable month for this figure. It came in at just above 88%. That’s the lowest I’ve seen since starting in real estate in 2006. Seller’s are tired and many of them just want out. In addition short sales and foreclosures are having a big effect on this as well. In the end, buyers are getting incredible deals. This is another factor that is putting downward pressure on prices.
What does this mean?
OVERALL: What an incredible time to buy. We fully believe now is when you are going to get the best deal for a long time to come. Seller’s are willing to deal, there is a lot of downward pressure on pricing, there are a lot of short sales and foreclosures and interest rates are extremely low still. Have you thought about investing? If so, jump in, the water is amazing. With some of the good news from NAR, we fully believe prices may bottom out this year but there is still a lot of question marks. Watch Job Creation, that’s going to be a huge factor in how things go.
SELLERS: For sellers, this is not good news, especially if you do not have a lot of equity. But on the same token, you will probably get as much for your home between now and July as you will for another 18 – 24 months to come. In addition, if you are looking to “buy up”, you can get some amazing deals that you didn’t exist 4 months ago and that you won’t see for a long time to come. If you must sell, you MUST price it right. If you price it too high, you will chase the market down and stand to lose a lot of money. Please call us to talk to the experts in Chester County real estate. We’ve sold 7x’s more homes than the average agent and we did it in almost half the time and got our clients almost 4% more than the average agent. If you want the best, call us at 484-696-4833.
BUYERS: Stop thinking about it and take action! Now is the best time as you are going to see to buy a home. Period. But, just as sellers do, you need an incredible agent too. One that knows the market. There are plenty of issues out there that can really get you into trouble and if your agent has not sold many homes in the last 12 months, then you are putting yourself at risk. Please call us and let us interview for the job of representing you in the purchase of your next home. 484-696-4833.
BTW, We do have very specific data for every price range and area of town. Want specific data pertaining to your neighborhood or your own home? We have it! Please let me know if you would like a neighborhood-specific analysis by contacting me!
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