Chester County Real Estate Market Stats: May 2015 Comments Off
THE FIRE STILL BURNS. . .
The market continues to move at a very rapid pace in most parts of Chester County, appraisals continue to be an issue, rates continue to be low. For how long, who knows. Let’s look at the details…
DEMAND: Demand has been a good tick above normal this year, mostly, as we’ve said, because prices are coming up and folks are able to make the move happen that they’ve put off for a small handful of years. Demand remains strong, and we don’t expect that to change. For seller’s, it’s a great thing. For buyers, it’s very tough, between slim pickings and very competitive offer situations and also Appraisals continuing to be very difficult and in some cases, very wrong.
SUPPLY AND INVENTORY ACCUMULATION: Despite the increase in demand, inventory continues to follow last years numbers. What isn’t seen by these charts is that a slight bit more people have listed their homes for sale over last year. This number is not incredibly significant, but that is why we can maintain the same inventory levels and have elevated sales.
SOLD TO LIST RATIO: This ratio has been more volatile than last year, mostly because higher priced homes are selling, and for a lower ratio than the average price, so it’s having an heavier effect on the numbers. Overall, homes are selling for a very high rate of what they are asking, especially in the Downingtown, West chester and Great Valley areas.
RATES: Rates continue around 4% however, we keep hearing that they are going up. Only time will tell. If you want to move, have the means to do so, you can certainly get a great rate NOW. No one can predict what the rates will be in the future. And remember, the rates are the “X” factor. 0.5% difference will easily knock $10,000k off what you can afford, or add it if they go down.
CONCLUSION: Not much different than last month. The market is amazing and the market completely SUCKS all at the same time. If you are selling a home, as long as you have the price right for the condition and location, getting the home under contract shouldn’t take very much. HOWEVER, getting from the contract to closing has continued to get harder and HARDER, which is where our (The Chris & Caleb Team) expertise really shine.
In fact, starting on August 1st, new government regulations are going to make the processes even harder, at least for the transition time. We won’t get into the nitty gritty here, but it will suffice to say that those who are not fully ready for it will create a ton of havoc and stress for those they serve. We are already preparing to make sure we are ONLY working with companies that are fully ready for it and that we have adjusted our systems to make sure our clients have no clue that anything changed.
Chester County Real Estate Statistics: April 2015 Comments Off
FIRE! FIRE!! MOVE QUICKLY!!!
Chester County Market Stats: March 2015 Comments Off
Chester County Market Statistics: Jan 2015 Comments Off
Cut Throat and Competitive…
Chester County Market Stats: December 2014 Comments Off
VERY, VERY EXCITING NEWS…
Chester County Market Statistics: November 2014 Comments Off
HO-HO-Homes are still selling
Chester County Market Statistics: October 2014 Comments Off
WHAT IS THERE TO BE THANKFUL FOR? A LOT, IT TURNS OUT
The market remains very healthy, showing signs of “responsible” growth. Sellers are getting their home sold quicker than any time in the last 6-7 years and for closer than asking price. Rates are surprisingly and unexpectedly low, which means buyers are getting an unexpected gift. Let’s look at the details…
DEMAND: Demand in October was very healthy. There was a lot of activity and we can tell you from the front lines it was tough for buyers, especially in the “move up” range. Those buyers looking to get more space and buy a bigger house than what they currently had, face many multiple offer situations. This has been the experience over the last two October selling seasons. If this year mirrors next year, then November will see a cool down in the activity. This is good for sellers and, frankly, frustrating for buyers. Good news is that rates are very low and prices haven’t climbed too high.
SUPPLY AND INVENTORY ACCUMULATION: October signals the month when many people put selling on hold for the holiday and winter season. The homes that will be left on the market over the next month will be those that are serious about selling. In addition, they will settle for a percentage point less for their homes, statistically, than those that were on the market, up to this point. We hope that we do not see the same inventory drought happen this year, as last year. If inventory can stay at respectable levels, it will help the market overall in the spring.
SOLD TO LIST RATIO: This number appears to be concerning, as last October the ratio went up, dramatically, to 95%. When comparing this year, it looks bad, however it’s not. When compared to the 5 year trend, it’s par for the course that this ratio trails off this time of year. One reason, we speculate, that the ratio was so high last year was that the inventory dropped off dramatically this time last year, leaving little to choose from. Therefore sellers could demand a higher list to sold ratio.
RATES: Rates are AH-MAZ-ING right now, hovering just below 4%. This is VERY unexpected and those who are ready and wise will take quick advantage of this. This could save a buyer as much as $100-$200 per month, depending on where rates go in the beginning of the year.
CONCLUSION: We expect to see the “auction” atmosphere go to the way side as the year trails off and things calm down for Buyers. While that was somewhat nice for sellers, it makes everything more difficult for everyone. If you are considering buying and are on the fence, jump in!! Rates are well worth the reason to jump and take advantage of them! If you are thinking of selling in 2015, please call us and we can help you take advantage of the winter months and make the most financially savvy updates to your home, to get it ready for the spring market.
DON’T LET THE SEASON SCARE YOU!
Halloween is right around the corner and while many kids and those who are kids at heart are preparing for the spooky observance, the market continues to indicate very solid and stable numbers. Everything is cooling down as seasonally expected and the numbers tell a good story. Let’s look at the details.
DEMAND: Demand is mirroring last years numbers and while demand was down in September from the previous month, it’s still a good deal above the 5 year trend. The 5 year trend is reflective of a depressed market, so as long as we stay 10-20% above that line, then we are “healthy territory”.
SUPPLY AND INVENTORY ACCUMULATION: Starting in May, the inventory has stayed above the levels of the same time the year before. This number/fact in and of itself is not of any concern at all, however what would be is if there begins to be a gap between last year and this years number in favor of more homes on the market. The overall level in September was around 6.6 months. This is considered a balanced market. That number could even float up just a bit but anything over 8 months would be concerning as it might mean the market is cooling too much.
SOLD TO LIST RATIO: Last month the average was around 94.5% for this ration, meaning the average home seller in Chester County received 94.5% of asking price. This number also is a good steady number and as our team is observing many multiple offer situations, that number should stay pretty steady. If this drops to 93% or less, then it could also indicate a cooling market.
RATES: Not much to report on rates. They continue to be sub 4% for FHA and around 4.25% for conventional 30 year loans. The feeling we get from the buying consumer is that a slight rise would be tolerable but if it hit 5% that would negatively effect the psychology of the buyer and put a damper on many folks. As it is, these rates are still encouraging many folks to make a move even though they aren’t 100% ready.
CONCLUSION: The numbers remain solid and steady. This time of year the inventory level starts to drop like a dam letting out water for cleaning. We won’t see inventory rise again until about March. This doesn’t mean it’s a “bad” time to buy or sell a home. What it means for buyers is that there won’t be as much to choose from and that sellers are serious about selling and may accept a bit less than what they would otherwise accept. For sellers it means there is less competition.
Chester County Real Estate Statistics: August 2014 Comments Off
THE TRAIN AIN’T SLOWIN’ DOWN…
The market activity remains strong and healthy with no apparent indicators of any weaknesses other than buyers not having enough to choose from. We certainly saw a slow down in August, but September is already picking up steam. Let’s look at the details…..
DEMAND: August finally caught a breather as far as the pace of activity went. Typically the drop of activity happens between June and July and it waited this year until August. It’s unclear what that may mean for the overall market, but it’s our suspicion that it’s because there wasn’t much to choose from for buyers and it delayed the activity. Overall the demand continues at a health level and is not dropping off and is on pace to match last years DEMAND.
SUPPLY AND INVENTORY ACCUMULATION: The big story earlier this year was the lack of inventory but over the last few months the level of inventory has risen to more healthier and even levels. In June the level hit the 6 month mark which is a balanced market – meaning it’s neither a Buyer’s or Sellers market but in-between. The caveat of that is that depending on the area and price, there are still very strong sellers markets happening, mainly in West Chester, Downingtown and Great Valley areas between the price of $250 and $500k.
The next Quarter will be very indicative of where the market next year is going to go. If we see the same drastic dip in inventory we saw in Q4 last year, then we could be in for another year where there isn’t much to choose from. It’s our opinion that this isn’t likely to happen as prices have come up enough that more and more folks that held off selling are going to see that they can get what they want and make the decision to move.
SOLD TO LIST RATIO: After spending a few months at a recent high of close to 97%, this number dropped back down to match the same numbers as last year, roughly around 95%. What the higher ratio represents is that prices are headed up. As long as the ratio can stay above 94%, then the market is likely to continue in stability or, even better, appreciation. Right now, it’s in a very healthy place.
RATES: Rates have dipped again to around 4.125% for 30 conventional and for FHA around 3.875%. This is not where we thought rates would be at this point. We thought for sure they’d be much closer to 5%. This is very good news for everyone in the market. Buyers will continue to be encouraged to pursue home ownership and sellers will like the amount of interest there is in the market. My advice is always the same on this – if the rates are favorable, they seem they can only go one way, which is up.
CONCLUSION: Overall we are in a very healthy place. In great indicator of this is that for the first half of the year, (Jan – July) the activity in the price range of $1m to $2m is up about 28.5% over the same time last year. That’s a VERY good sign. Typically it’s this price range that really is a front runner in what’s coming next. If this is any indication, then we should see a healthy and continued active market in 2015. It’s still an amazing time to buy and the big question for buyers is – does “your” house exists? Can you find it? And for sellers there is almost no down side as long as you are priced right.
If you are considering buying, please call us to set up a buyers consultation so we can let you know how easy it will be to find your dream home. If you are looking to sell, let us know and we can help you discover if the amount you can get for your home is what you need to take the next step. You can reach us at 484-713-2413