Like a freight train…
The numbers remain very strong, showing no signs of weakness or slowing down, at least overall. In many ways, this was the best August we’ve had in over 12 years. Let’s look at the details…
DEMAND: If the market is a train, it certainly doesn’t seem to be slowing down yet. Closed sales for August were the highest it’s been in more than 12 years, eclipsing even 2005 numbers. Granted, we haven’t seen the values of homes sky rocket, like we did in the mid 2000’s, we certainly have seen the activity to rival that.
SUPPLY AND INVENTORY ACCUMULATION: This number continues to be well below even last year. This means that buyers continue to have a hard time finding the right home and when they do, there are usually more than one offers on the home. Of course, this is great for those selling.
SOLD TO LIST RATIO: This number was also the highest it’s been in more than 12 years. , for August, at 96.3%. To put that into perspective, 96.4% is the most sellers have received for their homes, and that number only showed up only TWICE, and both were in the month of June, at the hight of the spring market.
CONCLUSION: Again, if the market is a train, it certainly appears to be barreling down the tracks, with little to slow it down. The truth is that real estate is, by nature, cyclical. Those cycles tend to take about 7 years and we are 10 years into a 7 year cycle. A “correction” is coming. Maybe tomorrow, maybe not. Right now though, the market is strong and is a great time for sellers.
It’s a great time for buyers too if they know what they are looking for, and have a great agent by their side.
Chester County Real Estate Market Stats: July 2016 Comments Off
OVER THE HUMP….
June is typically the height of the market, as far as closings go, and this year will be no different. There was very little “out of the ordinary” that happened in the market last month and the stats are still showing a very competitive market for buyers and a great market for sellers. Let’s look at the details…
DEMAND: As expected, demand dropped in total, last month. Seasonally July sees a big drop off in activity, mostly due to vacations. This year was no exception, and it continues to be above the 5 year trend.
SUPPLY AND INVENTORY ACCUMULATION: This stat is a bit interesting in that there is usually a steeper drop in accumulation between June and July and there wasn’t this year. When looking into the numbers more closely, it appears to be that the current inventory low really started this time last year, and that is the reason for the lack of the drop. Watch this number. If we see it start to increase to 6 months and above, it is indicative of a shifting market.
SOLD TO LIST RATIO: This number was also very much inline with the same period last year. If this number starts to trend under last year, that could also be indicative of a shifting market.
RATES: Rates continue to stay low around 3.5% – 3.75%. They are not expected to move too much, however only time will tell.
CONCLUSION: July was somewhat sleepy as far as anything happening that is out of the usual, but the market is still moving at a quick pace. Homes are still moving quickly and getting close to their asking price and there are still multiple offers happening.
Regardless of the lack of inventory or how quickly the market is moving, it is a great time to buy or sell. If you are doing either, you must make sure you have the best, most experienced agent possible, on your side. If you would like to interview us for the job, just reach out and call 484-696-4833.
For example, in the Wissahickon SD, homes that have sold in the last 6 months, which are the only relevant homes at this point, between $550-$600, are receiving, on average, 97.9% of asking price. And if we look at just $575-$600, they are actually getting 98.1%.
all of those comps, which included homes up to $600k were selling for an average of 97.5% of asking price, just to make sure you are working off of the most recent, accurate data. In addition, I
Of course this doesn’t mean it’s impossible to get them lower. My goal is always to beat the average.
Chester County Real Estate Stats: June 2016 Comments Off
THE PRESSURE CONTINUES….
The lack of inventory continues to be a thorn in buyers sides, but is definitely boosting values and what sellers can ask for. With rates renewing their drop into the mid and low 3%, it sets up an interesting tension between the tension of an election year and the desire to take advantage of the low rates. Let’s take a look at the details…
DEMAND: Demand continues to track closely with last years numbers, despite the low inventory. This is great news for sellers and lets buyers know that it’s a very competitive market.
SUPPLY AND INVENTORY ACCUMULATION: Supply continues to track about 10% under last year and about 18% below the 5 year trend. These are important numbers to pay attention to, as when the supply and inventory start to rise, it could be the signal of a shifting market.
SOLD TO LIST RATIO: Last month saw the highest ratio yet of the year. This means that last month, sellers received the most for their home, as a percentage of asking price, than they have all year. The last time we saw this percentage was 2 years ago and outside of that, we haven’t seen that in more than 10 years. That’s pretty significant and could possibly indicate a peak to the market. Only time will tell.
RATES: Rates this past month have gone south once again, mostly due to the financial instability related to “Brexit”. Most folks can get a rate of 3.5% or better on purchase mortgages or refi’s. If your rate is at 4% or great, please give us a call. We can connect you to one of our recommended lenders.
CONCLUSION: With the global financial instability and the upcoming election, the rest of this year is anyone’s guess. What we do know is that we see to be in the middle of the strongest market since 2005. Whether we hit a peak or not, only time will tell. Regardless, it’s critical that folks have the BEST buyer and seller agents by their side when they go to complete a transaction. We are selling an average 4 homes a week. We know exactly what’s going on in the market and how to make the path as smooth as possible. Call us if you or someone you know has any real estate needs at all, we’d be very excited to help.
*Please note that we made some adjustments to the 5 year average and they are no more accurate.
Chester County Real Estate Market Stats: May 2016 Comments Off
This review is a simple lesson in supply and demand. When supply is up, price goes down. When demand is up and supply is down… Anyone want a Tickle-me-Elmo? That’s exactly what we are seeing in the market right now. Let’s look at the details.
DEMAND: Continues to mirror last year quite closely. Not much new to report here except June is the last official month of the “Spring Market”. That means we expect to see a lessening in activity starting in July.
SUPPLY AND INVENTORY ACCUMULATION: This is where the numbers are a bit more interesting. This time last year, we were seeing inventory levels around the 6 month mark, which indicated a “balanced” market. This year we are still around 5 months, which indicates that there are many spots in the area that are very strong seller’s markets. There has actually been a 6% drop in the number of homes listed this year, year to date over 2015. That’s another reason for the hyper seller’s market in some places. All this means is that the competition amongst buyers is extremely high and buyers must be prepared to fight for a good house they really like.
SOLD TO LIST RATIO: The lack of inventory has cause the List to Sale price ratio to take a decent jump for this month. This isn’t surprising, as less availability drives up price. Until demand drops this is going to continue to be the case. There are no signs this will change, however, nothing is a sure thing.
RATES: Rates continue to flirt with the 4% line. Depending on the day, they might be below 4% or above. This is part of what’s driving the incredible demand.
CONCLUSION: The sharpness of the lack of inventory has certainly caught many professionals off guard. Some (including myself) were expecting a slower spring with the market softening. That, of course, hasn’t happened. The market continues to be extremely competitive in many area’s but not all. If you are looking to sell, getting your price and condition is as important as ever, so as to not leave any money on the table. As a buyer, you need to be fully aware and prepared for what you are walking into. It’s also extremely important who you choose to have on your side, from your realtor to who the buyer is using for mortgage and title. It all matters greatly.
If you are considering the purchase or sale of real estate in our area, we’d love to talk to you about how we can help you. Reach out by calling 484-696-4833.
IT FEELS LIKE 2005
In 2005, the market in this area was at it’s peak with a lot of multiple offers and prices rising every day. While we can’t say prices are rising at the same rate (thank you government regulations) it does feel like the market environment of 2005. We are actually short about 200-300 homes for sale in the market place right now and buyers and sellers are feeling it. Homes are selling for over asking price and the competition is fierce. Let’s look at the details. . .
DEMAND: The number of sales continues to mirror 2015, almost exactly, which is pretty amazing, up only 3% over last year. The big deal is that there isn’t as much for them to choose from and because of that it feels like there are a lot more buyers in the market. Buyers have to be much more aggressive in their offers than they were last year. In some places where demand is more concentrated, they must be willing to go over asking price and in many cases at least split the difference if the home doesn’t appraise for sale price. It underscores the need for Buyers to have the best representation they can possibly have.
SUPPLY AND INVENTORY ACCUMULATION: Until April, the supply was averaging about 6% higher than last year until April, when it went about 6% under 2015. The major reason for this is that there were about 200 less homes listed in April 2016 than the year before. This has caused the inventory accumulation to take a serious deviation from last year. This time last year, there was about 6 months of inventory, county wide. That’s a balanced market. This year its at 5 months, which is a pretty solid seller’s market. Unless a whole bunch of folks decide they want to move and put their homes on the market, it’s likely we will continue to see a lack of inventory.
SOLD TO LIST RATIO: In April, this figure more closely matched last year, however the two previous months were a good bit below 2015. It’s mostly due to some higher end sales happening, which usually see a lower ratio than the lower price ranges, and that drags the rate down. What this continues to tell us is that sellers are getting more for their homes than they have the last 5 years.
CONCLUSION: Overall, it’s extremely important that anyone entering the Real Estate market have someone next to them that knows the “waters” they are wading into. There is too much at stake financially and otherwise to not have the best expert, that you 100% trust, walking with you.
For buyers, it can mean that you miss out on multiple homes that you really love due to weak offers. For sellers, it could mean leaving a lot of money on the table due to not pricing your home at just the right number, whether too high or low. So make sure that the agent you choose has a lot of experience selling homes in the last 12 months and has strong integrity. Oh, and you should really like them too. That certainly helps.
Chester County Real Estate Market Stats: March 2016 Comments Off
“We have already received 3 offers on this home. If you want to submit an offer, we need it by 6 pm tonight”. That’s a pretty typical situation that a lot of buyers find themselves in right now. On Feb 24th, things were pretty slow and now, April 5th, as I write this, things are the exact opposite. However, that doesn’t mean that the market is headed in a good direction. Let’s look at the details…
DEMAND: Demand, or number of homes sold is tracking with last year. Just like we saw many multiple offer situations last year, we are seeing the same thing. It’s really hard on folks who must sell their home in order to buy. This type of market puts them at a huge disadvantage. We have just begun letting clients of ours that are in that boat know that their best strategy may be to move twice. Meaning that they sell their home and if there isn’t a home they love to buy, they may just wait, move into temporary housing, until the ideal home becomes available. It’s tough but, what is your dream worth?
SUPPLY AND INVENTORY ACCUMULATION: While supply is tracking above last year, the inventory accumulation is mirroring last year. That’s significant because it means that those extra homes that are going on the market are being bought/absorbed. The demand is keeping up with the extra supply.
SOLD TO LIST RATIO: This one is an anomaly. However, the reason is the market at $1 million and above. For homes under $1m, the ratio is 94.2% and 4 months of inventory. Above $1m its 85% of asking and 26 months of inventory. That’s a big difference. When looking back at sales above $1m, it seems that market may have hit a peak in 2014 with a list to sale price ratio at 92.2% and then 89% in 2015. However that’s hard to say based on one piece of data. One conclusion we can come to is that the high end market is dragging this number down.
RATES: Rates continue to be steady in the 3.75 for 30 year conventional, tier 1 credit and 3.375% on FHA which is way lower than we thought they would be at this point. This makes it very attractive to borrow money.
CONCLUSION: It seems that the slow down has yet to arrive in Chester County. Overall the market is still move quite quickly, with sellers being firmly in control and buyers having to fight for every offer they put in. With rates being very low, STILL, it’s really incentivizing folks to get off the fence and do something.
As many of you know, WE NEED YOUR HELP!! We cannot keep listings on the market. They have been selling just about as soon as they hit the market. We also have buyers looking for just about every type of home out there.
So – WHO do you know who is looking to move in the next 60 – 90 days. Please call us IMMEDIATELY if you know someone and help us get connected. Chances are we have a buyer for their home.
You can reach us at 484-696-4833
Chester County Market Statistics: February 2016 Comments Off
WHO TURNED ON THE LIGHTS?
A flip was switched about a week or two ago. The market turned on. We have had more calls and offers being written and submitted than the last 3 months. The market has turned that “Spring” corner. So if you are thinking of when the best time to put your home on the market or go buy, it’s now! Let’s look at the details. . .
DEMAND: Demand is keeping pace with February of last month, with 306 homes sold in February of 2015 and 302 this year. While this is relatively slow and normal for this time of the year, we do expect to see a big increase in demand in March and have already started to see and feel it. In fact EVERY SINGLE ONE of the 11 homes we put on the market in February sold already. Last year we saw a solid 46% increase in demand between February and March. Things are heating up.
SUPPLY AND INVENTORY ACCUMULATION: There is slightly more homes for sale than this time last year, however the inventory accumulation is very slightly less. This means that there is slightly more demand than last year. One factor in this could be interest rates with them sitting between 3.25% and 3.75% depending on qualifications and program. It seems, based on this information so far, we are set for a similar year to last year, which was very tough on buyers but good for sellers.
SOLD TO LIST RATIO: This is the one anomaly in this data that may hint at the slowdown we’ve been expecting for the last 6 months. The average last month was about 93.6% where last year, during the same month it was about 95%. This could be just that some higher priced homes sold, which typically have a much lower ratio or it could be that sellers aren’t getting as high of offers as they’d like and they are getting less. Only time will tell.
RATES: Right now rates are much much lower than anyone ever anticipated them being. While this may seem like a good thing, especially for buyers, it indicates that the “powers that be” are trying to keep the economy moving. We’ve heard from more than a few economic experts that a slow down is coming, it’s only a matter of time. So, now is the time to take advantage of the lower rates.
CONCLUSION: The market is heating up, no doubt! There are lots of multiple offer situations already and there are not enough homes for most buyers to choose from. No one knows exactly what the future holds and from where we are sitting right now, it seems like a great time to be selling a home.
On the Buying side, we have some very effective tricks up our sleeve to help our buyers find the best home for them that others do not take advantage of. If you are considering a move, especially if you have a home to sell, call us! We can help you make the best decision for you and your family! 484-696-4833.
Chester County Real Estate Statistics: January 2016 Comments Off
MISSING: Homes for sale….
That’s pretty accurate. Many buyers right now are just sitting and waiting for a good home to come up for sale. The market is desperately in need of some good homes to sell. In addition, the latest numbers do not really tell us anything about whether the market this year is headed up or is softening. Not yet. So, with that said, here are the details…
DEMAND: Demand was up slightly more than last year but not too significantly. We can tell you that from a “man on the ground” perspective, there are a lot of buyers just waiting for a good home to buy, but they can’t find much. We have been talking to a lot of other Realtors and they are saying the same thing. So – the question is, do you or someone you know want to sell their home quickly and for top dollar because now is one of the best times to do it.
SUPPLY AND INVENTORY ACCUMULATION: Just like demand, supply and inventory accumulation was up slightly, but not enough to be of any concern yet. We can tell you that just our team has a great number of homes we will be putting on the market in the next 45 days, more than we’ve ever had before. So depending on the demand, the market could go either way. Bottom line this time around is there isn’t very much to sell at all right now and we NEED homes to sell.
SOLD TO LIST RATIO: Typical of the season the sold to list price ratio is low, however it’s right in line with where it usually is this time of year. We expect to see a big jump in what sellers can expect to get for their homes this month, compared to what they are asking. If you didn’t get it before, NOW is the time to sell.
RATES: Due to less than great economic conditions both here and around the world, rates actually dropped over the last month, putting most rates below 4% again. FHA is at or close to 3.5% with Conventional 30 yr at around 3.75% – 3.875%.
CONCLUSION: We need homes to put on the market and sell, especially if it is an “A+” home, meaning it’s in updated condition with little to do to the home. If you or someone you know is considering putting their home on the market, please let us know asap. We’d love to consult with them to get them the information they need to make the best decision for them and their household.
Buyers are having a tough time right now. The pickings are slim and what’s out there is typically the picked over homes that need work. When an “A+” home does come on the market, there are typically multiple offers and it sells very quickly. The very best thing for a buyer to do is work with a Buyer Specialist that sells a large number of homes and knows how to get them the win in a multiple offer situation. We love those situations because we have some tricks up our sleeves that usually help out a great deal.
If you know anyone who is looking to move, please let us know. We’d love to help them!
WARMER TEMPS DON’T HELP SALES
Despite having one of the warmest Decembers on record, it didn’t help home sales. December sales were down compared to last year and there are a few other signs of a slow down. China’s economy troubles certainly doesn’t help either. Let’s look at the details.
DEMAND: Demand in December was still strong, compared to the five year trend. It did end up with less sales than December of last year. In and of itself, that doesn’t indicate anything. Let’s look at the rest of the indicators to see what they are saying.
SUPPLY AND INVENTORY ACCUMULATION: Seasonally, this number is right on track with where it’s expected to be, which is very low. December is the month that most people pull their homes off the market for the holidays. From here on out, inventory will grow.
SOLD TO LIST RATIO: For the second month in a row, this number lagged noticeably behind the same month last year. November was 0.6% behind and December 0.9% behind. When looking at the overall ratio for the year, 2015 shows 94.80% where 2014 was 95.16%. This is something to take notice of.
RATES: Rates have jumped slightly in response to the Fed raising rates, though nothing to detrimental. FHA is still sub 4% and Conventional is around 4.25%-4.5%.
CONCLUSION: With China’s economy on very shaky ground and folks like George Soros saying that he sees signs of a 2008 slow down, there are a lot of signs pointing to a slow down. Locally, the stats are not showing that the market is as strong as it was last year. The Sold to List price being down as well as the number of homes sold being down are signs of some level of a slow down.
For those thinking of selling in the next few years, if the market does slow down, they will be able to get more for their house this year than the next few years. It may be the right time to sell.
For buyers, rates are the “X Factor”. They are headed up and that can have a dramatic impact on what a buyer can get. Now is the time to take advantage of sub 5% rates.
In either case, we’d love to connect them with one of our specialists to give them the info they need to make the best decision. If you or someone you know are looking to make a move, please give us a call at 484-696-4833.
Chester County Real Estate Statistics: November 2015 Comments Off
TIS THE SEASON!
As many people prepare to celebrate the holidays, the market tends to see a slow down. This season is no exception. It is unique in that the market is still seeing multiple offers in places and that the inventory accumulation seems to be rising. Let’s look at the details.
DEMAND: Demand in November was slightly above the demand we saw last year, but nothing too significant. One observation to note, is how much higher demand was than last year in June and how the market has not sustained that increase. In and of itself, it doesn’t mean the sky is falling. It is something to continue to observe and see how demand is doing, so we can know if the market is shifting.
SUPPLY AND INVENTORY ACCUMULATION: Like demand, supply is mirroring the same time last year. However, when you look at the bigger picture you can certainly see that inventory accumulation should be falling off this time of year. It isn’t . We have the same amount of inventory as we did last month. That’s another sign that momentum in the market is slowing.
SOLD TO LIST RATIO: The predicable dip in a lower ratio was held off until this month. What this could mean is that the demand was higher last month, however we won’t see that until January.
RATES: Rates continue to hold steady in the low 4’s.
CONCLUSION: It seems “business as usual” right now, with the only exception being a slight creep in the amount of inventory accumulation. This is a factor to keep watch on. If inventory keeps creeping up, that’s a definite sign of a slow down. We are still experiencing multiple offer situations in the Downingtown, West Chester and Great Valley area’s. This can be frustrating for Buyers, but they just need to set their expectations for this and make sure they plan a winning strategy with their Buyers Specialist. Of course the market continues to be great for Sellers in those areas. Outside of those areas the markets are more “normal” in that it is taking 45-90 days for homes to sell and usually do not have multiple offers.
Lastly, we here at the C & C team want to take this opportunity to wish all of our friends, clients, past clients and “fans” a VERY BLESSED holiday season and hope that it is one filled with hope, life and much time with those you love.